Pennon Group Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction
| PEGRY Stock | USD 14.82 0.07 0.47% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Pennon Group PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 14.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.28. Pennon Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Pennon Group's share price is below 20 indicating that the pink sheet is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Pennon Group hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Pennon Group PLC from the perspective of Pennon Group response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Pennon Group PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 14.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.28. Pennon Group after-hype prediction price | USD 14.82 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Pennon |
Pennon Group Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Pennon price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Pennon using various technical indicators. When you analyze Pennon charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Pennon Group Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Pennon Group PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 14.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23, mean absolute percentage error of 0.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.28.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Pennon Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Pennon Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Pennon Group Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Pennon Group | Pennon Group Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Pennon Group Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Pennon Group's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Pennon Group's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.43 and 16.36, respectively. We have considered Pennon Group's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Pennon Group pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Pennon Group pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.4377 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2304 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0166 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 14.2848 |
Predictive Modules for Pennon Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Pennon Group PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Pennon Group After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Pennon Group at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Pennon Group or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Pennon Group, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Pennon Group Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Pennon Group's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Pennon Group's historical news coverage. Pennon Group's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 13.36 and 16.28, respectively. We have considered Pennon Group's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Pennon Group is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Pennon Group PLC is based on 3 months time horizon.
Pennon Group Pink Sheet Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Pennon Group is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Pennon Group backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Pennon Group, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.08 | 1.46 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
14.82 | 14.82 | 0.00 |
|
Pennon Group Hype Timeline
Pennon Group PLC is at this time traded for 14.82. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.04. Pennon is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.08%. %. The volatility of related hype on Pennon Group is about 288.4%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 14.86. The book value of the company was at this time reported as 9.09. The company last dividend was issued on the 26th of January 2023. Pennon Group PLC had 2:3 split on the 23rd of July 2021. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next projected press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Pennon Group to cross-verify your projections.Pennon Group Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Pennon Group's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Pennon Group's future price movements. Getting to know how Pennon Group's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Pennon Group may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MWTCY | Manila Water | 0.81 | 3 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| MWTCF | Manila Water | 0.81 | 10 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| TGASF | Towngas China | 0.81 | 13 per month | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7.14 | |
| CWAFF | China Water Affairs | 0.81 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.31) | 0.00 | (1.30) | 5.56 | |
| AEE | Ameren Corp | 0.81 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 1.09 | (1.45) | 5.74 | |
| ACPIF | AC Energy | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| TREAF | Terna Energy Societe | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| TTAPF | TTW Public | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Other Forecasting Options for Pennon Group
For every potential investor in Pennon, whether a beginner or expert, Pennon Group's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Pennon Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Pennon. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Pennon Group's price trends.Pennon Group Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Pennon Group pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Pennon Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Pennon Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Pennon Group Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Pennon Group pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Pennon Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Pennon Group pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Pennon Group PLC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 10.28 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.88) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 14.78 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 14.79 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.005 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.07) |
Pennon Group Risk Indicators
The analysis of Pennon Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Pennon Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting pennon pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.08 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.28 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.45 | |||
| Variance | 2.09 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.98 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.64 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.14) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Pennon Group
The number of cover stories for Pennon Group depends on current market conditions and Pennon Group's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Pennon Group is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Pennon Group's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios
Story Categories
Currently Trending Categories
Pennon Group Short Properties
Pennon Group's future price predictability will typically decrease when Pennon Group's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Pennon Group PLC often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Pennon Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Pennon Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 140.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 519 M |
Additional Tools for Pennon Pink Sheet Analysis
When running Pennon Group's price analysis, check to measure Pennon Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Pennon Group is operating at the current time. Most of Pennon Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Pennon Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Pennon Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Pennon Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.