PepsiCo Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| PEP Stock | USD 144.40 2.34 1.59% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of PepsiCo on the next trading day is expected to be 149.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.72 and the sum of the absolute errors of 104.95. PepsiCo Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although PepsiCo's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of PepsiCo's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of PepsiCo fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of PepsiCo's share price is below 20 indicating that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.11) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.1756 | EPS Estimate Current Year 8.1137 | EPS Estimate Next Year 8.5556 | Wall Street Target Price 157.2727 |
Using PepsiCo hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of PepsiCo from the perspective of PepsiCo response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards PepsiCo using PepsiCo's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards PepsiCo using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of PepsiCo's stock price.
PepsiCo Short Interest
An investor who is long PepsiCo may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about PepsiCo and may potentially protect profits, hedge PepsiCo with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 141.4989 | Short Percent 0.0158 | Short Ratio 2.77 | Shares Short Prior Month 21.3 M | 50 Day MA 145.6594 |
PepsiCo Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to PepsiCo's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in PepsiCo. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding PepsiCo can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around PepsiCo. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
PepsiCo Implied Volatility | 0.35 |
PepsiCo's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of PepsiCo stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if PepsiCo's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that PepsiCo stock will not fluctuate a lot when PepsiCo's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of PepsiCo on the next trading day is expected to be 149.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.72 and the sum of the absolute errors of 104.95. PepsiCo after-hype prediction price | USD 144.34 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of PepsiCo to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current PepsiCo contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that PepsiCo will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0219% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With PepsiCo trading at USD 144.4, that is roughly USD 0.0316 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating PepsiCo's daily price movement you should consider acquiring PepsiCo options at the current volatility level of 0.35%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 PepsiCo Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast PepsiCo's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in PepsiCo's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for PepsiCo stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current PepsiCo's open interest, investors have to compare it to PepsiCo's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of PepsiCo is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in PepsiCo. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
PepsiCo Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine PepsiCo price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for PepsiCo using various technical indicators. When you analyze PepsiCo charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Statistic Functions | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
PepsiCo Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the PepsiCo's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 1985-12-31 | Previous Quarter 7.6 B | Current Value 8.1 B | Quarterly Volatility 3.6 B |
PepsiCo Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of PepsiCo on the next trading day is expected to be 149.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.72, mean absolute percentage error of 4.29, and the sum of the absolute errors of 104.95.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict PepsiCo Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that PepsiCo's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
PepsiCo Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest PepsiCo | PepsiCo Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
PepsiCo Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting PepsiCo's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. PepsiCo's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 148.50 and 150.64, respectively. We have considered PepsiCo's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of PepsiCo stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent PepsiCo stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.5662 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.7205 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0119 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 104.9526 |
Predictive Modules for PepsiCo
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as PepsiCo. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of PepsiCo's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
PepsiCo After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of PepsiCo at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in PepsiCo or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of PepsiCo, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
PepsiCo Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting PepsiCo's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on PepsiCo's historical news coverage. PepsiCo's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 143.26 and 145.42, respectively. We have considered PepsiCo's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
PepsiCo is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of PepsiCo is based on 3 months time horizon.
PepsiCo Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as PepsiCo is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading PepsiCo backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with PepsiCo, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.07 | 1.07 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 5 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 5 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
144.40 | 144.34 | 0.04 |
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PepsiCo Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of January PepsiCo is traded for 144.40. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.06, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. PepsiCo is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 144.34. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 127.38%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.04%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.07%. The volatility of related hype on PepsiCo is about 321.32%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 144.42. About 80.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.91. PepsiCo recorded earning per share (EPS) of 5.26. The entity last dividend was issued on the 5th of December 2025. The firm had 2:1 split on the 29th of May 1996. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 5 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of PepsiCo to cross-verify your projections.PepsiCo Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to PepsiCo's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict PepsiCo's future price movements. Getting to know how PepsiCo's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how PepsiCo may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| KO | The Coca Cola | 0.27 | 9 per month | 0.80 | (0.01) | 2.16 | (1.57) | 6.64 | |
| PM | Philip Morris International | 2.22 | 9 per month | 1.50 | 0.02 | 3.10 | (2.80) | 7.92 | |
| BUD | Anheuser Busch Inbev | 0.49 | 9 per month | 0.77 | 0.07 | 2.23 | (1.55) | 4.71 | |
| UL | Unilever PLC ADR | 0.60 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 1.75 | (1.81) | 8.92 | |
| KDP | Keurig Dr Pepper | 0.13 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 1.97 | (1.91) | 13.48 | |
| MNST | Monster Beverage Corp | 0.05 | 10 per month | 1.04 | 0.09 | 2.16 | (1.85) | 7.15 | |
| BTI | British American Tobacco | 0.11 | 9 per month | 1.15 | 0.08 | 2.47 | (2.17) | 6.70 | |
| CCEP | Coca Cola European Partners | (0.55) | 11 per month | 1.34 | (0.07) | 1.95 | (2.11) | 5.66 | |
| COKE | Coca Cola Consolidated | 0.42 | 9 per month | 1.23 | 0.07 | 3.53 | (2.37) | 9.33 | |
| KOF | Coca Cola Femsa SAB | (0.41) | 9 per month | 0.86 | 0.17 | 2.92 | (1.79) | 5.77 |
Other Forecasting Options for PepsiCo
For every potential investor in PepsiCo, whether a beginner or expert, PepsiCo's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. PepsiCo Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in PepsiCo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying PepsiCo's price trends.PepsiCo Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with PepsiCo stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of PepsiCo could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing PepsiCo by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
PepsiCo Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how PepsiCo stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading PepsiCo shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying PepsiCo stock market strength indicators, traders can identify PepsiCo entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 144.4 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 144.4 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.17) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (2.34) |
PepsiCo Risk Indicators
The analysis of PepsiCo's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in PepsiCo's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting pepsico stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7881 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.04 | |||
| Variance | 1.08 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for PepsiCo
The number of cover stories for PepsiCo depends on current market conditions and PepsiCo's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that PepsiCo is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about PepsiCo's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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PepsiCo Short Properties
PepsiCo's future price predictability will typically decrease when PepsiCo's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of PepsiCo often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential PepsiCo's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. PepsiCo's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.4 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 9.3 B |
Additional Tools for PepsiCo Stock Analysis
When running PepsiCo's price analysis, check to measure PepsiCo's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy PepsiCo is operating at the current time. Most of PepsiCo's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of PepsiCo's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move PepsiCo's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of PepsiCo to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.