Petrleo Brasileiro Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| PETR3 Stock | BRL 41.74 0.80 1.95% |
Petrleo Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time The value of RSI of Petrleo Brasileiro's share price is above 80 indicating that the stock is significantly overbought by investors. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 91
Buy Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Petrleo Brasileiro hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Petrleo Brasileiro SA from the perspective of Petrleo Brasileiro response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Petrleo Brasileiro SA on the next trading day is expected to be 41.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.46 and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.24. Petrleo Brasileiro after-hype prediction price | BRL 41.74 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Petrleo |
Petrleo Brasileiro Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Petrleo price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Petrleo using various technical indicators. When you analyze Petrleo charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Petrleo Brasileiro Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Petrleo Brasileiro SA on the next trading day is expected to be 41.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.46, mean absolute percentage error of 0.39, and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.24.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Petrleo Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Petrleo Brasileiro's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Petrleo Brasileiro Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Petrleo Brasileiro | Petrleo Brasileiro Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Petrleo Brasileiro Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Petrleo Brasileiro's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Petrleo Brasileiro's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 39.99 and 43.49, respectively. We have considered Petrleo Brasileiro's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Petrleo Brasileiro stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Petrleo Brasileiro stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.1666 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1341 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.463 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.013 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 28.24 |
Predictive Modules for Petrleo Brasileiro
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Petrleo Brasileiro. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Petrleo Brasileiro After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Petrleo Brasileiro at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Petrleo Brasileiro or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Petrleo Brasileiro, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Petrleo Brasileiro Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Petrleo Brasileiro's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Petrleo Brasileiro's historical news coverage. Petrleo Brasileiro's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 40.01 and 43.47, respectively. We have considered Petrleo Brasileiro's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Petrleo Brasileiro is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Petrleo Brasileiro is based on 3 months time horizon.
Petrleo Brasileiro Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Petrleo Brasileiro is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Petrleo Brasileiro backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Petrleo Brasileiro, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.42 | 1.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
41.74 | 41.74 | 0.00 |
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Petrleo Brasileiro Hype Timeline
Petrleo Brasileiro is at this time traded for 41.74on Sao Paulo Exchange of Brazil. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Petrleo is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.42%. %. The volatility of related hype on Petrleo Brasileiro is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 41.74. About 50.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.87. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Petrleo Brasileiro has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.6. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 13.81. The firm last dividend was issued on the 22nd of November 2022. Petrleo Brasileiro had 2:1 split on the 28th of April 2008. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Petrleo Brasileiro to cross-verify your projections.Petrleo Brasileiro Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Petrleo Brasileiro's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Petrleo Brasileiro's future price movements. Getting to know how Petrleo Brasileiro's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Petrleo Brasileiro may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| RECV3 | Petroreconcavo SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.63 | 0.07 | 2.81 | (3.05) | 6.95 | |
| UGPA3 | Ultrapar Participaes SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.70 | 0.20 | 2.98 | (1.91) | 10.49 | |
| BRAV3 | 3R Petroleum Oleo | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.71 | 0.14 | 4.50 | (2.76) | 11.92 | |
| PRIO3 | Petro Rio SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.11 | 0.23 | 3.24 | (2.41) | 7.46 | |
| CSAN3 | Cosan SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.60 | 0.03 | 4.07 | (3.45) | 11.79 | |
| LUPA3 | Lupatech SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.05 | 0.1 | 11.76 | (3.70) | 26.75 | |
| RPMG3 | Refinaria de Petrleos | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.02 | 0.04 | 3.83 | (3.69) | 43.78 |
Other Forecasting Options for Petrleo Brasileiro
For every potential investor in Petrleo, whether a beginner or expert, Petrleo Brasileiro's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Petrleo Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Petrleo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Petrleo Brasileiro's price trends.Petrleo Brasileiro Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Petrleo Brasileiro stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Petrleo Brasileiro could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Petrleo Brasileiro by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Petrleo Brasileiro Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Petrleo Brasileiro stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Petrleo Brasileiro shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Petrleo Brasileiro stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Petrleo Brasileiro SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Petrleo Brasileiro Risk Indicators
The analysis of Petrleo Brasileiro's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Petrleo Brasileiro's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting petrleo stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.17 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.34 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.66 | |||
| Variance | 2.75 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.97 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.79 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.24) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Petrleo Brasileiro
The number of cover stories for Petrleo Brasileiro depends on current market conditions and Petrleo Brasileiro's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Petrleo Brasileiro is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Petrleo Brasileiro's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Petrleo Brasileiro Short Properties
Petrleo Brasileiro's future price predictability will typically decrease when Petrleo Brasileiro's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Petrleo Brasileiro SA often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Petrleo Brasileiro's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Petrleo Brasileiro's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 13 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 11.1 B |
Additional Tools for Petrleo Stock Analysis
When running Petrleo Brasileiro's price analysis, check to measure Petrleo Brasileiro's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Petrleo Brasileiro is operating at the current time. Most of Petrleo Brasileiro's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Petrleo Brasileiro's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Petrleo Brasileiro's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Petrleo Brasileiro to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.