Peoples Financial OTC Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| PFBX Stock | USD 20.51 0.02 0.1% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Peoples Financial Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 20.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.19. Peoples OTC Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The value of RSI of Peoples Financial's share price is at 52 indicating that the otc stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Peoples Financial, making its price go up or down. Momentum 52
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
It is a matter of debate whether otc price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Peoples Financial based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. Using Peoples Financial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Peoples Financial Corp from the perspective of Peoples Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Peoples Financial Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 20.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.19. Peoples Financial after-hype prediction price | USD 20.51 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as otc price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Peoples |
Peoples Financial Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Peoples price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Peoples using various technical indicators. When you analyze Peoples charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Peoples Financial Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Peoples Financial Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 20.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12, mean absolute percentage error of 0.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.19.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Peoples OTC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Peoples Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Peoples Financial OTC Stock Forecast Pattern
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Peoples Financial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Peoples Financial's OTC Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Peoples Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 18.67 and 22.28, respectively. We have considered Peoples Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Peoples Financial otc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Peoples Financial otc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.8807 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0404 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1198 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0057 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.1888 |
Predictive Modules for Peoples Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Peoples Financial Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the otc stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the otc stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Peoples Financial After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Peoples Financial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Peoples Financial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of OTC Stock prices, such as prices of Peoples Financial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Peoples Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Peoples Financial's otc stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Peoples Financial's historical news coverage. Peoples Financial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 18.70 and 22.32, respectively. We have considered Peoples Financial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Peoples Financial is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Peoples Financial Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Peoples Financial OTC Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a OTC Stock such as Peoples Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Peoples Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the OTC price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Peoples Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.04 | 1.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
20.51 | 20.51 | 0.00 |
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Peoples Financial Hype Timeline
Peoples Financial Corp is at this time traded for 20.51. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Peoples is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.04%. %. The volatility of related hype on Peoples Financial is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 20.51. About 38.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.45. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Peoples Financial Corp has Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 169.35. The entity last dividend was issued on the 10th of November 2022. The firm had 2:1 split on the 19th of April 2000. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Peoples Financial to cross-verify your projections.Peoples Financial Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Peoples Financial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Peoples Financial's future price movements. Getting to know how Peoples Financial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Peoples Financial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PPLL | Peoples | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1.61 | 0.00 | 65.12 | |
| OFED | Oconee Federal Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.51 | (0.02) | 5.98 | (4.18) | 24.80 | |
| BCTF | Bancorp 34 | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.50 | (0.11) | 0.76 | (1.00) | 5.89 | |
| CYVF | Crystal Valley Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.65 | 0 | 1.33 | (0.96) | 8.13 | |
| CBCY | Central Bancompany | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.46 | 0.12 | 6.73 | (3.19) | 25.42 | |
| REDW | Redwood Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 71.41 | |
| FMBM | F M Bank | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1.01 | (0.60) | 2.07 | |
| CNBB | Cnb Community Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 0.72 | (0.56) | 3.04 | |
| BLHK | Blueharbor Bank | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.69 | (0.05) | 2.29 | (2.59) | 17.51 | |
| NMBF | Nmb Financial Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.0001) | 0.49 | 0.00 | 33.71 |
Other Forecasting Options for Peoples Financial
For every potential investor in Peoples, whether a beginner or expert, Peoples Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Peoples OTC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Peoples. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Peoples Financial's price trends.Peoples Financial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Peoples Financial otc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Peoples Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Peoples Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Peoples Financial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Peoples Financial otc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Peoples Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Peoples Financial otc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Peoples Financial Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 20.51 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 20.51 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.01) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.02) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 52.22 |
Peoples Financial Risk Indicators
The analysis of Peoples Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Peoples Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting peoples otc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.6063 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.47 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.81 | |||
| Variance | 3.27 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.49 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.18 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.19) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Peoples Financial
The number of cover stories for Peoples Financial depends on current market conditions and Peoples Financial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Peoples Financial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Peoples Financial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for Peoples OTC Stock Analysis
When running Peoples Financial's price analysis, check to measure Peoples Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Peoples Financial is operating at the current time. Most of Peoples Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Peoples Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Peoples Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Peoples Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.