Pfg Fidelity Mutual Fund Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

PFFBX Fund  USD 8.92  0.01  0.11%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Pfg Fidelity Institutional on the next trading day is expected to be 8.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.46. Pfg Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A four-period moving average forecast model for Pfg Fidelity Institutional is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Pfg Fidelity 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 23rd of November

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Pfg Fidelity Institutional on the next trading day is expected to be 8.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.46.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Pfg Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Pfg Fidelity's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Pfg Fidelity Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Pfg FidelityPfg Fidelity Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Pfg Fidelity Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Pfg Fidelity's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Pfg Fidelity's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.65 and 9.19, respectively. We have considered Pfg Fidelity's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
8.92
8.92
Expected Value
9.19
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Pfg Fidelity mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Pfg Fidelity mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria103.9254
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.007
MADMean absolute deviation0.0255
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0028
SAESum of the absolute errors1.455
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Pfg Fidelity. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Pfg Fidelity Institutional and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Pfg Fidelity

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Pfg Fidelity Institu. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.000.000.27
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.000.000.27
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Pfg Fidelity. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Pfg Fidelity's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Pfg Fidelity's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Pfg Fidelity Institu.

Other Forecasting Options for Pfg Fidelity

For every potential investor in Pfg, whether a beginner or expert, Pfg Fidelity's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Pfg Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Pfg. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Pfg Fidelity's price trends.

Pfg Fidelity Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Pfg Fidelity mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Pfg Fidelity could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Pfg Fidelity by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Pfg Fidelity Institu Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Pfg Fidelity's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Pfg Fidelity's current price.

Pfg Fidelity Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Pfg Fidelity mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Pfg Fidelity shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Pfg Fidelity mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Pfg Fidelity Institutional entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Pfg Fidelity Risk Indicators

The analysis of Pfg Fidelity's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Pfg Fidelity's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting pfg mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Pfg Mutual Fund

Pfg Fidelity financial ratios help investors to determine whether Pfg Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Pfg with respect to the benefits of owning Pfg Fidelity security.
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