PennantPark Floating Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| PFLT Stock | USD 9.50 0.04 0.42% |
PennantPark Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of PennantPark Floating's share price is at 57 indicating that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling PennantPark Floating, making its price go up or down. Momentum 57
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.38) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.2905 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.1896 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.1792 | Wall Street Target Price 10.7857 |
Using PennantPark Floating hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of PennantPark Floating Rate from the perspective of PennantPark Floating response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards PennantPark Floating using PennantPark Floating's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards PennantPark using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of PennantPark Floating's stock price.
PennantPark Floating Short Interest
An investor who is long PennantPark Floating may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about PennantPark Floating and may potentially protect profits, hedge PennantPark Floating with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 9.7697 | Short Percent 0.0124 | Short Ratio 1.33 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.1 M | 50 Day MA 9.2964 |
PennantPark Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of PennantPark Floating Rate on the next trading day is expected to be 9.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.68.PennantPark Floating Rate Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to PennantPark Floating's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in PennantPark. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding PennantPark can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around PennantPark Floating Rate. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of PennantPark Floating's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about PennantPark Floating.
PennantPark Floating Implied Volatility | 1.16 |
PennantPark Floating's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of PennantPark Floating Rate stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if PennantPark Floating's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that PennantPark Floating stock will not fluctuate a lot when PennantPark Floating's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of PennantPark Floating Rate on the next trading day is expected to be 9.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.68. PennantPark Floating after-hype prediction price | USD 9.51 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current PennantPark contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that PennantPark Floating Rate will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0725% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With PennantPark Floating trading at USD 9.5, that is roughly USD 0.006887 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating PennantPark Floating's daily price movement you should consider acquiring PennantPark Floating Rate options at the current volatility level of 1.16%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 PennantPark Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast PennantPark Floating's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in PennantPark Floating's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for PennantPark Floating stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current PennantPark Floating's open interest, investors have to compare it to PennantPark Floating's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of PennantPark Floating is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in PennantPark. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
PennantPark Floating Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine PennantPark price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for PennantPark using various technical indicators. When you analyze PennantPark charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the PennantPark Floating's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2011-03-31 | Previous Quarter 102.7 M | Current Value 122.7 M | Quarterly Volatility 36.1 M |
PennantPark Floating Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of PennantPark Floating Rate on the next trading day is expected to be 9.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.68.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict PennantPark Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that PennantPark Floating's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
PennantPark Floating Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest PennantPark Floating | PennantPark Floating Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
PennantPark Floating Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting PennantPark Floating's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. PennantPark Floating's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.52 and 10.45, respectively. We have considered PennantPark Floating's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of PennantPark Floating stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent PennantPark Floating stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.0356 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1094 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.012 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 6.6752 |
Predictive Modules for PennantPark Floating
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as PennantPark Floating Rate. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.PennantPark Floating After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of PennantPark Floating at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in PennantPark Floating or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of PennantPark Floating, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
PennantPark Floating Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting PennantPark Floating's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on PennantPark Floating's historical news coverage. PennantPark Floating's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 8.54 and 10.48, respectively. We have considered PennantPark Floating's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
PennantPark Floating is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of PennantPark Floating Rate is based on 3 months time horizon.
PennantPark Floating Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as PennantPark Floating is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading PennantPark Floating backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with PennantPark Floating, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.10 | 0.97 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 11 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
9.50 | 9.51 | 0.11 |
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PennantPark Floating Hype Timeline
PennantPark Floating Rate is at this time traded for 9.50. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. PennantPark is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 9.51 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 0.11%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.1%. The volatility of related hype on PennantPark Floating is about 2255.81%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 9.50. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 171.52 M. Net Income was 66.36 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 261.43 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of PennantPark Floating to cross-verify your projections.PennantPark Floating Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to PennantPark Floating's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict PennantPark Floating's future price movements. Getting to know how PennantPark Floating's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how PennantPark Floating may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CGBD | Carlyle Secured Lending | 0.21 | 9 per month | 1.23 | 0.02 | 2.23 | (2.09) | 5.52 | |
| BCSF | Bain Capital Specialty | (0.08) | 10 per month | 1.26 | (0.03) | 1.93 | (1.87) | 6.32 | |
| SLRC | SLR Investment Corp | 0.08 | 17 per month | 0.91 | 0.05 | 1.88 | (1.73) | 5.30 | |
| NMFC | New Mountain Finance | 0.13 | 5 per month | 1.01 | (0.05) | 1.66 | (1.69) | 5.28 | |
| MFIC | MidCap Financial Investment | 0.08 | 5 per month | 1.39 | (0.04) | 2.18 | (1.47) | 6.99 | |
| ASA | ASA Gold and | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.51 | 0.32 | 4.90 | (3.23) | 9.84 | |
| GAINI | Gladstone Investment | 0.01 | 13 per month | 0.34 | (0.23) | 0.35 | (0.31) | 1.98 | |
| KBDC | Kayne Anderson BDC | 0.18 | 7 per month | 1.12 | 0.04 | 2.84 | (2.35) | 6.04 | |
| FDUS | Fidus Investment Corp | (0.06) | 6 per month | 1.31 | (0.06) | 1.94 | (1.84) | 6.28 | |
| CSWC | Capital Southwest | (0.12) | 15 per month | 0.89 | 0.11 | 2.20 | (2.02) | 6.18 |
Other Forecasting Options for PennantPark Floating
For every potential investor in PennantPark, whether a beginner or expert, PennantPark Floating's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. PennantPark Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in PennantPark. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying PennantPark Floating's price trends.PennantPark Floating Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with PennantPark Floating stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of PennantPark Floating could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing PennantPark Floating by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
PennantPark Floating Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how PennantPark Floating stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading PennantPark Floating shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying PennantPark Floating stock market strength indicators, traders can identify PennantPark Floating Rate entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
PennantPark Floating Risk Indicators
The analysis of PennantPark Floating's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in PennantPark Floating's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting pennantpark stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7845 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.6905 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.0 | |||
| Variance | 1.0 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.8777 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.4768 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.87) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for PennantPark Floating
The number of cover stories for PennantPark Floating depends on current market conditions and PennantPark Floating's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that PennantPark Floating is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about PennantPark Floating's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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PennantPark Floating Short Properties
PennantPark Floating's future price predictability will typically decrease when PennantPark Floating's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of PennantPark Floating Rate often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential PennantPark Floating's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. PennantPark Floating's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 92.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 122.7 M |
Additional Tools for PennantPark Stock Analysis
When running PennantPark Floating's price analysis, check to measure PennantPark Floating's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy PennantPark Floating is operating at the current time. Most of PennantPark Floating's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of PennantPark Floating's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move PennantPark Floating's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of PennantPark Floating to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.