Prudential Financial Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Regression

PFSZX Fund  USD 24.64  0.11  0.45%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Prudential Financial Services on the next trading day is expected to be 25.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.67 and the sum of the absolute errors of 41.15. Prudential Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Prudential Financial's mutual fund price is slightly above 60 indicating that the mutual fund is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Prudential, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 60

 Buy Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Prudential Financial's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Prudential Financial Services, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Prudential Financial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Prudential Financial Services from the perspective of Prudential Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Prudential Financial Services on the next trading day is expected to be 25.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.67 and the sum of the absolute errors of 41.15.

Prudential Financial after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 24.64  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Prudential Financial to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Prudential Mutual Fund please use our How to Invest in Prudential Financial guide.

Prudential Financial Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Prudential price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Prudential using various technical indicators. When you analyze Prudential charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Prudential Financial price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Prudential Financial Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 23rd of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Prudential Financial Services on the next trading day is expected to be 25.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.67, mean absolute percentage error of 0.56, and the sum of the absolute errors of 41.15.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Prudential Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Prudential Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Prudential Financial Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Prudential Financial Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Prudential Financial's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Prudential Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 23.70 and 26.90, respectively. We have considered Prudential Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
24.64
25.30
Expected Value
26.90
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Prudential Financial mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Prudential Financial mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.5332
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.6746
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0297
SAESum of the absolute errors41.1514
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Prudential Financial Services historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Prudential Financial

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Prudential Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
23.0424.6426.24
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
22.1826.3827.98
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
23.1724.6026.04
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Prudential Financial. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Prudential Financial's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Prudential Financial's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Prudential Financial.

Prudential Financial After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Prudential Financial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Prudential Financial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Prudential Financial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Prudential Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Prudential Financial's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Prudential Financial's historical news coverage. Prudential Financial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 23.04 and 26.24, respectively. We have considered Prudential Financial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
24.64
24.64
After-hype Price
26.24
Upside
Prudential Financial is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Prudential Financial is based on 3 months time horizon.

Prudential Financial Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Prudential Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Prudential Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Prudential Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.25 
1.60
 0.00  
  0.15 
0 Events / Month
1 Events / Month
Within a week
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
24.64
24.64
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Prudential Financial Hype Timeline

Prudential Financial is at this time traded for 24.64. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.15. Prudential is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.25%. %. The volatility of related hype on Prudential Financial is about 260.47%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 24.49. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.92. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Prudential Financial last dividend was issued on the 20th of December 2019. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be within a week.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Prudential Financial to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Prudential Mutual Fund please use our How to Invest in Prudential Financial guide.

Prudential Financial Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Prudential Financial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Prudential Financial's future price movements. Getting to know how Prudential Financial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Prudential Financial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Prudential Financial

For every potential investor in Prudential, whether a beginner or expert, Prudential Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Prudential Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Prudential. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Prudential Financial's price trends.

Prudential Financial Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Prudential Financial mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Prudential Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Prudential Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Prudential Financial Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Prudential Financial mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Prudential Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Prudential Financial mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Prudential Financial Services entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Prudential Financial Risk Indicators

The analysis of Prudential Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Prudential Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting prudential mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Prudential Financial

The number of cover stories for Prudential Financial depends on current market conditions and Prudential Financial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Prudential Financial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Prudential Financial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

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Other Information on Investing in Prudential Mutual Fund

Prudential Financial financial ratios help investors to determine whether Prudential Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Prudential with respect to the benefits of owning Prudential Financial security.
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