Invesco Golden Etf Forecast - Simple Regression
| PGJ Etf | USD 30.24 0.11 0.37% |
Invesco Etf outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of now, The relative strength momentum indicator of Invesco Golden's share price is at 50 indicating that the etf is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Invesco Golden, making its price go up or down. Momentum 50
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Invesco Golden hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Invesco Golden Dragon from the perspective of Invesco Golden response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Invesco Golden using Invesco Golden's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Invesco using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Invesco Golden's stock price.
Invesco Golden Implied Volatility | 0.49 |
Invesco Golden's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Invesco Golden Dragon stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Invesco Golden's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Invesco Golden stock will not fluctuate a lot when Invesco Golden's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Invesco Golden Dragon on the next trading day is expected to be 29.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.59 and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.63. Invesco Golden after-hype prediction price | USD 30.24 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Invesco Golden to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Invesco contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Invesco Golden Dragon will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0306% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Invesco Golden trading at USD 30.24, that is roughly USD 0.009261 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Invesco Golden's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Invesco Golden Dragon options at the current volatility level of 0.49%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Invesco Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Invesco Golden's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Invesco Golden's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Invesco Golden stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Invesco Golden's open interest, investors have to compare it to Invesco Golden's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Invesco Golden is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Invesco. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Invesco Golden Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Invesco price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Invesco using various technical indicators. When you analyze Invesco charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Invesco Golden Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Invesco Golden Dragon on the next trading day is expected to be 29.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.59, mean absolute percentage error of 0.49, and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.63.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Invesco Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Invesco Golden's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Invesco Golden Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Invesco Golden | Invesco Golden Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Invesco Golden Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Invesco Golden's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Invesco Golden's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 27.95 and 30.81, respectively. We have considered Invesco Golden's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Invesco Golden etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Invesco Golden etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.2334 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5908 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0197 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 36.6289 |
Predictive Modules for Invesco Golden
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Invesco Golden Dragon. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Invesco Golden After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Invesco Golden at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Invesco Golden or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of Invesco Golden, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Invesco Golden Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Invesco Golden's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Invesco Golden's historical news coverage. Invesco Golden's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 28.82 and 31.66, respectively. We have considered Invesco Golden's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Invesco Golden is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Invesco Golden Dragon is based on 3 months time horizon.
Invesco Golden Etf Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as Invesco Golden is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Invesco Golden backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Invesco Golden, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.06 | 1.43 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 1 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | Very soon |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
30.24 | 30.24 | 0.00 |
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Invesco Golden Hype Timeline
On the 29th of January Invesco Golden Dragon is traded for 30.24. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Invesco is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.06%. %. The volatility of related hype on Invesco Golden is about 23833.33%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 30.24. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.15. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be very soon. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Invesco Golden to cross-verify your projections.Invesco Golden Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Invesco Golden's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Invesco Golden's future price movements. Getting to know how Invesco Golden's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Invesco Golden may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SCJ | iShares MSCI Japan | 0.18 | 8 per month | 0.67 | 0.09 | 1.30 | (1.31) | 3.84 | |
| AVGV | American Century ETF | (0.18) | 2 per month | 0.46 | 0.13 | 1.40 | (1.16) | 2.81 | |
| HSCZ | iShares Currency Hedged | 0.09 | 1 per month | 0.48 | 0.09 | 1.10 | (0.88) | 2.70 | |
| IDRV | iShares Self Driving EV | 0.31 | 4 per month | 1.08 | 0.06 | 2.45 | (1.60) | 6.31 | |
| FIDI | Fidelity International High | (0.09) | 3 per month | 0.44 | 0.13 | 1.23 | (1.01) | 2.66 | |
| IJAN | Innovator MSCI EAFE | (0.03) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 0.58 | (0.46) | 1.73 | |
| HERO | Global X Video | (0.32) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 1.69 | (2.11) | 5.05 | |
| YJUN | First Trust Exchange Traded | 0.05 | 4 per month | 0.13 | (0.06) | 0.47 | (0.56) | 1.63 | |
| TUR | iShares MSCI Turkey | 0.11 | 5 per month | 0.33 | 0.25 | 2.10 | (1.01) | 4.89 | |
| IFV | First Trust Dorsey | (0.18) | 7 per month | 0.53 | 0.13 | 1.49 | (1.26) | 3.40 |
Other Forecasting Options for Invesco Golden
For every potential investor in Invesco, whether a beginner or expert, Invesco Golden's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Invesco Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Invesco. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Invesco Golden's price trends.Invesco Golden Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Invesco Golden etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Invesco Golden could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Invesco Golden by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Invesco Golden Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Invesco Golden etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Invesco Golden shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Invesco Golden etf market strength indicators, traders can identify Invesco Golden Dragon entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Invesco Golden Risk Indicators
The analysis of Invesco Golden's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Invesco Golden's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting invesco etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.04 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.41 | |||
| Variance | 1.98 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Invesco Golden
The number of cover stories for Invesco Golden depends on current market conditions and Invesco Golden's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Invesco Golden is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Invesco Golden's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Invesco Golden to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Sync Your Broker module to sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors..
Investors evaluate Invesco Golden Dragon using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Invesco Golden's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Investment professionals apply varied valuation frameworks to compute inherent worth and acquire positions when market prices trade at discounts to calculated value. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Invesco Golden's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Invesco Golden's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Invesco Golden should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Conversely, Invesco Golden's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.