Jennison Natural Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Regression

PGNAX Fund  USD 54.92  0.43  0.78%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Jennison Natural Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 55.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.98 and the sum of the absolute errors of 59.65. Jennison Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Jennison Natural price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Jennison Natural Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 29th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Jennison Natural Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 55.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.98, mean absolute percentage error of 1.45, and the sum of the absolute errors of 59.65.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Jennison Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Jennison Natural's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Jennison Natural Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Jennison Natural Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Jennison Natural's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Jennison Natural's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 54.20 and 56.69, respectively. We have considered Jennison Natural's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
54.92
55.44
Expected Value
56.69
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Jennison Natural mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Jennison Natural mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.4844
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.9778
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0182
SAESum of the absolute errors59.6466
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Jennison Natural Resources historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Jennison Natural

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Jennison Natural Res. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
53.6854.9256.16
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
53.2154.4555.69
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
52.9754.6556.33
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Jennison Natural. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Jennison Natural's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Jennison Natural's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Jennison Natural Res.

Other Forecasting Options for Jennison Natural

For every potential investor in Jennison, whether a beginner or expert, Jennison Natural's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Jennison Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Jennison. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Jennison Natural's price trends.

Jennison Natural Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Jennison Natural mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Jennison Natural could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Jennison Natural by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Jennison Natural Res Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Jennison Natural's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Jennison Natural's current price.

Jennison Natural Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Jennison Natural mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Jennison Natural shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Jennison Natural mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Jennison Natural Resources entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Jennison Natural Risk Indicators

The analysis of Jennison Natural's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Jennison Natural's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting jennison mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Jennison Mutual Fund

Jennison Natural financial ratios help investors to determine whether Jennison Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Jennison with respect to the benefits of owning Jennison Natural security.
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