Phathom Pharmaceuticals Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

PHAT Stock  USD 15.71  0.88  5.30%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Phathom Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 15.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35 and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.75. Phathom Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Phathom Pharmaceuticals' share price is below 20 indicating that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Phathom Pharmaceuticals' future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Phathom Pharmaceuticals, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Phathom Pharmaceuticals hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Phathom Pharmaceuticals from the perspective of Phathom Pharmaceuticals response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Phathom Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 15.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35 and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.75.

Phathom Pharmaceuticals after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 15.71  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Phathom Pharmaceuticals to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Phathom Stock please use our How to Invest in Phathom Pharmaceuticals guide.

Phathom Pharmaceuticals Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Phathom price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Phathom using various technical indicators. When you analyze Phathom charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Phathom Pharmaceuticals simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Phathom Pharmaceuticals are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Phathom Pharmaceuticals prices get older.

Phathom Pharmaceuticals Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 3rd of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Phathom Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 15.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35, mean absolute percentage error of 0.20, and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.75.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Phathom Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Phathom Pharmaceuticals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Phathom Pharmaceuticals Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Phathom PharmaceuticalsPhathom Pharmaceuticals Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Phathom Pharmaceuticals Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Phathom Pharmaceuticals' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Phathom Pharmaceuticals' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 12.59 and 18.83, respectively. We have considered Phathom Pharmaceuticals' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
15.71
15.71
Expected Value
18.83
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Phathom Pharmaceuticals stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Phathom Pharmaceuticals stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.6432
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0812
MADMean absolute deviation0.3458
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0237
SAESum of the absolute errors20.75
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Phathom Pharmaceuticals forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Phathom Pharmaceuticals observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Phathom Pharmaceuticals

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Phathom Pharmaceuticals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
12.5915.7118.83
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
11.9115.0318.15
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
13.2615.5717.87
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Phathom Pharmaceuticals. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Phathom Pharmaceuticals' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Phathom Pharmaceuticals' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Phathom Pharmaceuticals.

Other Forecasting Options for Phathom Pharmaceuticals

For every potential investor in Phathom, whether a beginner or expert, Phathom Pharmaceuticals' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Phathom Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Phathom. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Phathom Pharmaceuticals' price trends.

Phathom Pharmaceuticals Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Phathom Pharmaceuticals stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Phathom Pharmaceuticals could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Phathom Pharmaceuticals by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Phathom Pharmaceuticals Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Phathom Pharmaceuticals' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Phathom Pharmaceuticals' current price.

Phathom Pharmaceuticals Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Phathom Pharmaceuticals stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Phathom Pharmaceuticals shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Phathom Pharmaceuticals stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Phathom Pharmaceuticals entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Phathom Pharmaceuticals Risk Indicators

The analysis of Phathom Pharmaceuticals' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Phathom Pharmaceuticals' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting phathom stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Thematic Opportunities

Explore Investment Opportunities

Build portfolios using Macroaxis predefined set of investing ideas. Many of Macroaxis investing ideas can easily outperform a given market. Ideas can also be optimized per your risk profile before portfolio origination is invoked. Macroaxis thematic optimization helps investors identify companies most likely to benefit from changes or shifts in various micro-economic or local macro-level trends. Originating optimal thematic portfolios involves aligning investors' personal views, ideas, and beliefs with their actual investments.
Explore Investing Ideas  

Additional Tools for Phathom Stock Analysis

When running Phathom Pharmaceuticals' price analysis, check to measure Phathom Pharmaceuticals' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Phathom Pharmaceuticals is operating at the current time. Most of Phathom Pharmaceuticals' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Phathom Pharmaceuticals' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Phathom Pharmaceuticals' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Phathom Pharmaceuticals to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.