Koninklijke Philips Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| PHIA Stock | EUR 26.40 0.15 0.57% |
Koninklijke Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Koninklijke Philips' share price is at 50 indicating that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Koninklijke Philips, making its price go up or down. Momentum 50
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.01) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.304 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.5141 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.703 | Wall Street Target Price 28.375 |
Using Koninklijke Philips hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Koninklijke Philips NV from the perspective of Koninklijke Philips response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Koninklijke Philips NV on the next trading day is expected to be 26.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31 and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.82. Koninklijke Philips after-hype prediction price | EUR 26.38 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Koninklijke |
Koninklijke Philips Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Koninklijke price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Koninklijke using various technical indicators. When you analyze Koninklijke charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Koninklijke Philips Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Koninklijke Philips NV on the next trading day is expected to be 26.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31, mean absolute percentage error of 0.28, and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.82.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Koninklijke Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Koninklijke Philips' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Koninklijke Philips Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Koninklijke Philips | Koninklijke Philips Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Koninklijke Philips Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Koninklijke Philips' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Koninklijke Philips' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 24.28 and 28.52, respectively. We have considered Koninklijke Philips' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Koninklijke Philips stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Koninklijke Philips stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.0126 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0357 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3137 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0126 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 18.82 |
Predictive Modules for Koninklijke Philips
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Koninklijke Philips. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Koninklijke Philips After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Koninklijke Philips at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Koninklijke Philips or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Koninklijke Philips, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Koninklijke Philips Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Koninklijke Philips' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Koninklijke Philips' historical news coverage. Koninklijke Philips' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 24.26 and 28.50, respectively. We have considered Koninklijke Philips' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Koninklijke Philips is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Koninklijke Philips is based on 3 months time horizon.
Koninklijke Philips Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Koninklijke Philips is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Koninklijke Philips backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Koninklijke Philips, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.19 | 2.12 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 5 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 5 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
26.40 | 26.38 | 0.08 |
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Koninklijke Philips Hype Timeline
Koninklijke Philips is at this time traded for 26.40on Euronext Amsterdam of Netherlands. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.07. Koninklijke is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 26.38. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decline on the next news is expected to be -0.08%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.19%. The volatility of related hype on Koninklijke Philips is about 617.48%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 26.33. About 19.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The book value of Koninklijke Philips was at this time reported as 11.52. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.36. Koninklijke Philips last dividend was issued on the 12th of May 2026. The entity had 30.2684:29.2684 split on the 9th of May 2024. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be in about 5 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Koninklijke Philips to cross-verify your projections.Koninklijke Philips Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Koninklijke Philips' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Koninklijke Philips' future price movements. Getting to know how Koninklijke Philips' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Koninklijke Philips may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AD | Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize | (0.12) | 3 per month | 0.66 | 0.07 | 1.64 | (1.58) | 12.13 | |
| AGN | Aegon NV | (0.04) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 2.40 | (2.72) | 12.32 | |
| INGA | ING Groep NV | 0.31 | 9 per month | 1.29 | 0.13 | 2.14 | (2.77) | 6.76 | |
| PHG | Koninklijke Philips NV | (0.01) | 6 per month | 1.73 | 0.03 | 2.43 | (2.41) | 13.66 | |
| SNN | Smith Nephew SNATS | 0.10 | 12 per month | 1.26 | 0.06 | 2.29 | (1.68) | 8.41 | |
| SOON | Sonova H Ag | (2.30) | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 1.65 | (2.43) | 7.15 |
Other Forecasting Options for Koninklijke Philips
For every potential investor in Koninklijke, whether a beginner or expert, Koninklijke Philips' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Koninklijke Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Koninklijke. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Koninklijke Philips' price trends.Koninklijke Philips Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Koninklijke Philips stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Koninklijke Philips could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Koninklijke Philips by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Koninklijke Philips Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Koninklijke Philips stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Koninklijke Philips shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Koninklijke Philips stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Koninklijke Philips NV entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Koninklijke Philips Risk Indicators
The analysis of Koninklijke Philips' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Koninklijke Philips' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting koninklijke stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.24 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.49 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.08 | |||
| Variance | 4.33 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.0 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.23 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.38) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Koninklijke Philips
The number of cover stories for Koninklijke Philips depends on current market conditions and Koninklijke Philips' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Koninklijke Philips is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Koninklijke Philips' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Koninklijke Philips Short Properties
Koninklijke Philips' future price predictability will typically decrease when Koninklijke Philips' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Koninklijke Philips NV often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Koninklijke Philips' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Koninklijke Philips' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 962.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.8 B |
Additional Tools for Koninklijke Stock Analysis
When running Koninklijke Philips' price analysis, check to measure Koninklijke Philips' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Koninklijke Philips is operating at the current time. Most of Koninklijke Philips' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Koninklijke Philips' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Koninklijke Philips' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Koninklijke Philips to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.