Invesco Water Etf Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| PHO Etf | USD 73.20 0.74 1.02% |
Invesco Etf outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of today, The relative strength momentum indicator of Invesco Water's share price is at 52 indicating that the etf is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Invesco Water, making its price go up or down. Momentum 52
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Invesco Water hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Invesco Water Resources from the perspective of Invesco Water response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Invesco Water using Invesco Water's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Invesco using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Invesco Water's stock price.
Invesco Water Implied Volatility | 0.31 |
Invesco Water's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Invesco Water Resources stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Invesco Water's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Invesco Water stock will not fluctuate a lot when Invesco Water's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Invesco Water Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 73.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.58 and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.34. Invesco Water after-hype prediction price | USD 73.21 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Invesco Water to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Invesco contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Invesco Water Resources will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0194% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Invesco Water trading at USD 73.2, that is roughly USD 0.0142 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Invesco Water's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Invesco Water Resources options at the current volatility level of 0.31%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Invesco Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Invesco Water's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Invesco Water's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Invesco Water stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Invesco Water's open interest, investors have to compare it to Invesco Water's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Invesco Water is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Invesco. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Invesco Water Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Invesco price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Invesco using various technical indicators. When you analyze Invesco charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Invesco Water Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 4th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Invesco Water Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 73.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.58, mean absolute percentage error of 0.54, and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.34.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Invesco Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Invesco Water's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Invesco Water Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Invesco Water | Invesco Water Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Invesco Water Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Invesco Water's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Invesco Water's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 72.27 and 74.13, respectively. We have considered Invesco Water's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Invesco Water etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Invesco Water etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.8141 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0367 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5821 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0081 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 34.345 |
Predictive Modules for Invesco Water
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Invesco Water Resources. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Invesco Water After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Invesco Water at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Invesco Water or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of Invesco Water, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Invesco Water Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Invesco Water's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Invesco Water's historical news coverage. Invesco Water's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 72.28 and 74.14, respectively. We have considered Invesco Water's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Invesco Water is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Invesco Water Resources is based on 3 months time horizon.
Invesco Water Etf Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as Invesco Water is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Invesco Water backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Invesco Water, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 0.93 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 3 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 3 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
73.20 | 73.21 | 0.01 |
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Invesco Water Hype Timeline
On the 3rd of February Invesco Water Resources is traded for 73.20. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Invesco is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 73.21 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.01%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.03%. The volatility of related hype on Invesco Water is about 1056.82%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 73.20. The company reported the last year's revenue of 11.62 M. Total Income to common stockholders was 6.57 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 3 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Invesco Water to cross-verify your projections.Invesco Water Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Invesco Water's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Invesco Water's future price movements. Getting to know how Invesco Water's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Invesco Water may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GUSA | Goldman Sachs MarketBeta | (0.14) | 2 per month | 0.81 | (0.05) | 0.99 | (1.23) | 3.77 | |
| APUE | Trust For Professional | 0.05 | 2 per month | 0.76 | (0.03) | 1.11 | (1.14) | 3.70 | |
| PXF | Invesco FTSE RAFI | (0.17) | 5 per month | 0.52 | 0.18 | 1.31 | (1.16) | 2.82 | |
| SNPE | Xtrackers SP 500 | 0.32 | 3 per month | 0.69 | (0.02) | 1.11 | (1.02) | 3.72 | |
| CWI | SPDR MSCI ACWI | (0.11) | 5 per month | 0.64 | 0.08 | 1.33 | (1.31) | 3.18 | |
| DCOR | Dimensional ETF Trust | (0.31) | 4 per month | 0.71 | 0 | 1.27 | (1.27) | 3.23 | |
| BDYN | iShares Dynamic Equity | 0.01 | 1 per month | 0.69 | (0.01) | 1.10 | (1.34) | 3.61 | |
| TNA | Direxion Daily Small | 1.34 | 2 per month | 3.26 | 0.05 | 5.37 | (5.58) | 13.93 | |
| TSPA | T Rowe Price | (0.11) | 1 per month | 0.81 | (0.04) | 1.05 | (1.30) | 3.73 | |
| XSOE | WisdomTree Emerging Markets | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.73 | 0.04 | 1.50 | (1.29) | 3.81 |
Other Forecasting Options for Invesco Water
For every potential investor in Invesco, whether a beginner or expert, Invesco Water's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Invesco Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Invesco. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Invesco Water's price trends.Invesco Water Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Invesco Water etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Invesco Water could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Invesco Water by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Invesco Water Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Invesco Water etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Invesco Water shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Invesco Water etf market strength indicators, traders can identify Invesco Water Resources entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Invesco Water Risk Indicators
The analysis of Invesco Water's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Invesco Water's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting invesco etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7246 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.9082 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.9313 | |||
| Variance | 0.8674 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.864 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.8249 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.71) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Invesco Water
The number of cover stories for Invesco Water depends on current market conditions and Invesco Water's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Invesco Water is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Invesco Water's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Invesco Water to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Dashboard module to portfolio dashboard that provides centralized access to all your investments.
The market value of Invesco Water Resources is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Invesco that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Invesco Water's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Invesco Water's true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because Invesco Water's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Invesco Water's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Invesco Water's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Invesco Water should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Meanwhile, Invesco Water's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.