Largecap Growth Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| PLGIX Fund | USD 15.74 0.05 0.32% |
Largecap Mutual Fund outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Largecap Growth's share price is approaching 42 indicating that the mutual fund is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Largecap Growth, making its price go up or down. Momentum 42
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Largecap Growth hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Largecap Growth Fund from the perspective of Largecap Growth response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Largecap Growth Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 15.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.38. Largecap Growth after-hype prediction price | USD 14.99 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Largecap |
Largecap Growth Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Largecap price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Largecap using various technical indicators. When you analyze Largecap charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Largecap Growth Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Largecap Growth Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 15.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.38.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Largecap Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Largecap Growth's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Largecap Growth Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Largecap Growth | Largecap Growth Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Largecap Growth Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Largecap Growth's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Largecap Growth's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 14.84 and 16.64, respectively. We have considered Largecap Growth's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Largecap Growth mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Largecap Growth mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.4019 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.016 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1063 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0067 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 6.38 |
Predictive Modules for Largecap Growth
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Largecap Growth. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Largecap Growth After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Largecap Growth at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Largecap Growth or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Largecap Growth, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Largecap Growth Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Largecap Growth's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Largecap Growth's historical news coverage. Largecap Growth's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 14.09 and 15.89, respectively. We have considered Largecap Growth's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Largecap Growth is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Largecap Growth is based on 3 months time horizon.
Largecap Growth Mutual Fund Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Largecap Growth is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Largecap Growth backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Largecap Growth, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.09 | 0.90 | 0.75 | 0.26 | 4 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 4 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
15.74 | 14.99 | 4.76 |
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Largecap Growth Hype Timeline
Largecap Growth is at this time traded for 15.74. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.75, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.26. Largecap is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 14.99. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 10.8%. The price reduction on the next news is expected to be -4.76%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.09%. The volatility of related hype on Largecap Growth is about 30.79%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 15.48. The company last dividend was issued on the 20th of December 2019. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 4 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Largecap Growth to cross-verify your projections.Largecap Growth Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Largecap Growth's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Largecap Growth's future price movements. Getting to know how Largecap Growth's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Largecap Growth may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DVFYX | Davis Financial Fund | (0.72) | 1 per month | 0.68 | 0.09 | 1.62 | (1.26) | 4.16 | |
| PRISX | T Rowe Price | (0.15) | 1 per month | 0.81 | 0.09 | 1.66 | (1.67) | 8.41 | |
| SBFAX | 1919 Financial Services | (16.59) | 1 per month | 0.44 | 0.10 | 1.70 | (1.46) | 18.32 | |
| ICFAX | Icon Financial Fund | (0.07) | 1 per month | 0.44 | 0.08 | 1.66 | (0.98) | 14.63 | |
| TFIFX | T Rowe Price | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.79 | 0.09 | 1.65 | (1.63) | 8.43 | |
| XFINX | Angel Oak Financial | (0.01) | 1 per month | 0.26 | (0.28) | 0.36 | (0.43) | 1.58 |
Other Forecasting Options for Largecap Growth
For every potential investor in Largecap, whether a beginner or expert, Largecap Growth's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Largecap Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Largecap. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Largecap Growth's price trends.Largecap Growth Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Largecap Growth mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Largecap Growth could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Largecap Growth by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Largecap Growth Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Largecap Growth mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Largecap Growth shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Largecap Growth mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Largecap Growth Fund entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 15.74 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 15.74 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.025 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.05 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 42.28 |
Largecap Growth Risk Indicators
The analysis of Largecap Growth's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Largecap Growth's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting largecap mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.6718 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.8999 | |||
| Variance | 0.8098 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Largecap Growth
The number of cover stories for Largecap Growth depends on current market conditions and Largecap Growth's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Largecap Growth is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Largecap Growth's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in Largecap Mutual Fund
Largecap Growth financial ratios help investors to determine whether Largecap Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Largecap with respect to the benefits of owning Largecap Growth security.
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