Palomar Holdings Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| PLMR Stock | USD 127.83 2.17 1.67% |
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Palomar Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 127.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 125.05. Palomar Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of today, The value of RSI of Palomar Holdings' share price is at 51 indicating that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Palomar Holdings, making its price go up or down. Momentum 51
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Palomar Holdings hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Palomar Holdings from the perspective of Palomar Holdings response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Palomar Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 127.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 125.05. Palomar Holdings after-hype prediction price | USD 127.83 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Palomar Holdings to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Palomar Stock, please use our How to Invest in Palomar Holdings guide.Palomar Holdings Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Palomar price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Palomar using various technical indicators. When you analyze Palomar charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Palomar Holdings Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Palomar Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 127.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.08, mean absolute percentage error of 7.92, and the sum of the absolute errors of 125.05.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Palomar Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Palomar Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Palomar Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Palomar Holdings | Palomar Holdings Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Palomar Holdings Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Palomar Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Palomar Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 125.82 and 129.84, respectively. We have considered Palomar Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Palomar Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Palomar Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.3425 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.3547 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.0842 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0165 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 125.05 |
Predictive Modules for Palomar Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Palomar Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Palomar Holdings After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Palomar Holdings at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Palomar Holdings or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Palomar Holdings, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Palomar Holdings Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Palomar Holdings' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Palomar Holdings' historical news coverage. Palomar Holdings' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 125.84 and 129.82, respectively. We have considered Palomar Holdings' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Palomar Holdings is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Palomar Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
Palomar Holdings Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Palomar Holdings is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Palomar Holdings backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Palomar Holdings, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.21 | 2.01 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 22 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 22 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
127.83 | 127.83 | 0.00 |
|
Palomar Holdings Hype Timeline
Palomar Holdings is at this time traded for 127.83. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.06. Palomar is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.21%. %. The volatility of related hype on Palomar Holdings is about 687.18%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 127.89. About 96.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Palomar Holdings was at this time reported as 33.14. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.25. Palomar Holdings recorded earning per share (EPS) of 6.41. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 22 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Palomar Holdings to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Palomar Stock, please use our How to Invest in Palomar Holdings guide.Palomar Holdings Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Palomar Holdings' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Palomar Holdings' future price movements. Getting to know how Palomar Holdings' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Palomar Holdings may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HCI | HCI Group | 0.22 | 16 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 3.10 | (4.07) | 10.10 | |
| AHL | Aspen Insurance Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.58) | 0.22 | (0.19) | 0.76 | |
| KMPR | Kemper | 0.58 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 2.31 | (3.07) | 14.64 | |
| FHB | First Hawaiian | (0.24) | 3 per month | 0.89 | 0.08 | 2.72 | (1.50) | 5.57 | |
| BHF | Brighthouse Financial | (0.04) | 14 per month | 0.72 | 0.11 | 1.33 | (1.28) | 31.02 | |
| RNST | Renasant | 1.08 | 21 per month | 1.13 | 0.04 | 2.73 | (1.72) | 5.64 | |
| BKU | BankUnited | (0.24) | 6 per month | 0.59 | 0.24 | 3.30 | (1.47) | 6.37 | |
| APAM | Artisan Partners Asset | 0.98 | 4 per month | 1.30 | (0.03) | 2.57 | (2.52) | 6.18 |
Other Forecasting Options for Palomar Holdings
For every potential investor in Palomar, whether a beginner or expert, Palomar Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Palomar Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Palomar. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Palomar Holdings' price trends.Palomar Holdings Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Palomar Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Palomar Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Palomar Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Palomar Holdings Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Palomar Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Palomar Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Palomar Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Palomar Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 3415.27 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.76) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 128.64 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 128.37 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.89) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (2.17) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 51.96 |
Palomar Holdings Risk Indicators
The analysis of Palomar Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Palomar Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting palomar stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.42 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.6 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.99 | |||
| Variance | 3.98 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.32 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.54 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.47) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Palomar Holdings
The number of cover stories for Palomar Holdings depends on current market conditions and Palomar Holdings' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Palomar Holdings is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Palomar Holdings' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Palomar Holdings Short Properties
Palomar Holdings' future price predictability will typically decrease when Palomar Holdings' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Palomar Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Palomar Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Palomar Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 26.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 550.9 M |
Additional Tools for Palomar Stock Analysis
When running Palomar Holdings' price analysis, check to measure Palomar Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Palomar Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of Palomar Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Palomar Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Palomar Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Palomar Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.