Planet Fitness Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| PLNT Stock | USD 93.28 1.19 1.26% |
Planet Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the value of RSI of Planet Fitness' share price is approaching 37 indicating that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Planet Fitness, making its price go up or down. Momentum 37
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Planet Fitness hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Planet Fitness from the perspective of Planet Fitness response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Planet Fitness on the next trading day is expected to be 93.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.51 and the sum of the absolute errors of 90.67. Planet Fitness after-hype prediction price | USD 93.28 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Planet Fitness to cross-verify your projections. Planet Fitness Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Planet price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Planet using various technical indicators. When you analyze Planet charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Planet Fitness Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Planet Fitness on the next trading day is expected to be 93.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.51, mean absolute percentage error of 5.53, and the sum of the absolute errors of 90.67.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Planet Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Planet Fitness' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Planet Fitness Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Planet Fitness | Planet Fitness Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Planet Fitness Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Planet Fitness' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Planet Fitness' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 90.90 and 95.66, respectively. We have considered Planet Fitness' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Planet Fitness stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Planet Fitness stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.9835 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0062 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.5112 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0146 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 90.67 |
Predictive Modules for Planet Fitness
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Planet Fitness. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Planet Fitness After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Planet Fitness at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Planet Fitness or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Planet Fitness, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Planet Fitness Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Planet Fitness' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Planet Fitness' historical news coverage. Planet Fitness' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 90.90 and 95.66, respectively. We have considered Planet Fitness' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Planet Fitness is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Planet Fitness is based on 3 months time horizon.
Planet Fitness Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Planet Fitness is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Planet Fitness backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Planet Fitness, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.02 | 2.38 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
93.28 | 93.28 | 0.00 |
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Planet Fitness Hype Timeline
Planet Fitness is at this time traded for 93.28. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.01. Planet is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.02%. %. The volatility of related hype on Planet Fitness is about 611.83%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 93.29. About 100.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.51. Planet Fitness last dividend was issued on the 18th of November 2016. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Planet Fitness to cross-verify your projections.Planet Fitness Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Planet Fitness' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Planet Fitness' future price movements. Getting to know how Planet Fitness' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Planet Fitness may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LTH | Life Time Group | 0.32 | 11 per month | 1.56 | 0.09 | 3.90 | (3.06) | 9.67 | |
| MOD | Modine Manufacturing | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 5.47 | (7.46) | 23.70 | |
| AN | AutoNation | 4.18 | 7 per month | 1.28 | 0.03 | 3.06 | (2.06) | 8.76 | |
| MAT | Mattel Inc | (0.61) | 8 per month | 1.87 | 0.04 | 3.98 | (3.26) | 8.61 | |
| LKQ | LKQ Corporation | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.66 | 0.05 | 3.36 | (2.55) | 9.62 | |
| BIRK | Birkenstock Holding plc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 4.30 | (3.77) | 16.78 | |
| LEVI | Levi Strauss Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.71 | (0.03) | 3.64 | (3.46) | 8.59 | |
| LAD | Lithia Motors | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.61 | (0.02) | 3.28 | (2.97) | 9.83 | |
| MUSA | Murphy USA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.85 | 0.04 | 2.90 | (2.45) | 7.34 | |
| MMYT | MakeMyTrip Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 3.14 | (4.68) | 18.31 |
Other Forecasting Options for Planet Fitness
For every potential investor in Planet, whether a beginner or expert, Planet Fitness' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Planet Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Planet. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Planet Fitness' price trends.Planet Fitness Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Planet Fitness stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Planet Fitness could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Planet Fitness by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Planet Fitness Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Planet Fitness stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Planet Fitness shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Planet Fitness stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Planet Fitness entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 33965.48 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.67) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 94.12 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 93.84 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.44) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.19) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 37.73 |
Planet Fitness Risk Indicators
The analysis of Planet Fitness' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Planet Fitness' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting planet stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.45 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.94 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.38 | |||
| Variance | 5.64 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.05 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.76 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.45) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Planet Fitness
The number of cover stories for Planet Fitness depends on current market conditions and Planet Fitness' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Planet Fitness is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Planet Fitness' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Planet Fitness Short Properties
Planet Fitness' future price predictability will typically decrease when Planet Fitness' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Planet Fitness often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Planet Fitness' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Planet Fitness' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 85.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 407.3 M |
Additional Tools for Planet Stock Analysis
When running Planet Fitness' price analysis, check to measure Planet Fitness' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Planet Fitness is operating at the current time. Most of Planet Fitness' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Planet Fitness' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Planet Fitness' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Planet Fitness to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.