GraniteShares Platinum Etf Forecast - Naive Prediction

PLTM Etf  USD 23.91  0.17  0.72%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of GraniteShares Platinum Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 23.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.50 and the sum of the absolute errors of 30.49. GraniteShares Etf Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of now the relative strength momentum indicator of GraniteShares Platinum's share price is below 20 indicating that the etf is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of GraniteShares Platinum's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of GraniteShares Platinum and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from GraniteShares Platinum's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with GraniteShares Platinum Trust, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using GraniteShares Platinum hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of GraniteShares Platinum Trust from the perspective of GraniteShares Platinum response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of GraniteShares Platinum Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 23.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.50 and the sum of the absolute errors of 30.49.

GraniteShares Platinum after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 0.0  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of GraniteShares Platinum to cross-verify your projections.

GraniteShares Platinum Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine GraniteShares price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for GraniteShares using various technical indicators. When you analyze GraniteShares charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for GraniteShares Platinum is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of GraniteShares Platinum Trust value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

GraniteShares Platinum Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of GraniteShares Platinum Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 23.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.50, mean absolute percentage error of 0.52, and the sum of the absolute errors of 30.49.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict GraniteShares Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that GraniteShares Platinum's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

GraniteShares Platinum Etf Forecast Pattern

Backtest GraniteShares PlatinumGraniteShares Platinum Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

GraniteShares Platinum Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting GraniteShares Platinum's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. GraniteShares Platinum's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 20.17 and 27.24, respectively. We have considered GraniteShares Platinum's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
23.91
23.71
Expected Value
27.24
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of GraniteShares Platinum etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent GraniteShares Platinum etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.4644
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.4998
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0268
SAESum of the absolute errors30.4882
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of GraniteShares Platinum Trust. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict GraniteShares Platinum. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for GraniteShares Platinum

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as GraniteShares Platinum. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of GraniteShares Platinum's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.000.003.52
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.122.405.92
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
18.4421.6824.92
Details

GraniteShares Platinum After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of GraniteShares Platinum at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in GraniteShares Platinum or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of GraniteShares Platinum, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

GraniteShares Platinum Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting GraniteShares Platinum's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on GraniteShares Platinum's historical news coverage. GraniteShares Platinum's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.00 and 3.52, respectively. We have considered GraniteShares Platinum's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
23.91
0.00
After-hype Price
3.52
Upside
GraniteShares Platinum is risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of GraniteShares Platinum is based on 3 months time horizon.

GraniteShares Platinum Etf Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as GraniteShares Platinum is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading GraniteShares Platinum backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with GraniteShares Platinum, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.81 
3.53
  0.08 
  0.02 
2 Events / Month
4 Events / Month
In a few days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
23.91
0.00
0.00 
3,530  
Notes

GraniteShares Platinum Hype Timeline

GraniteShares Platinum is at this time traded for 23.91. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.08, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. GraniteShares is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.81%. %. The volatility of related hype on GraniteShares Platinum is about 14120.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 23.89. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.55. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. GraniteShares Platinum had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in a few days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of GraniteShares Platinum to cross-verify your projections.

GraniteShares Platinum Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to GraniteShares Platinum's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict GraniteShares Platinum's future price movements. Getting to know how GraniteShares Platinum's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how GraniteShares Platinum may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
FXCInvesco CurrencyShares Canadian(0.21)10 per month 0.13 (0.30) 0.49 (0.35) 1.40 
XOCTFT Cboe Vest 0.02 1 per month 0.26 (0.22) 0.48 (0.46) 1.79 
IFGLiShares International Developed(0.1)1 per month 0.58 (0.08) 0.89 (1.17) 2.66 
AFMCFirst Trust Active 0.09 3 per month 0.66  0.05  1.75 (1.55) 3.90 
FCVTFirst Trust SSI(0.26)1 per month 1.05 (0.03) 1.73 (1.67) 3.97 
QISSimplify Exchange Traded(0.11)4 per month 0.00 (0.20) 2.53 (3.84) 13.58 
HUSVFirst Trust Horizon 0.11 4 per month 0.61 (0.15) 0.84 (0.92) 2.64 
SPYCSimplify Equity PLUS(0.14)1 per month 1.04 (0.08) 1.70 (1.61) 5.04 
PSLInvesco DWA Consumer 0.24 5 per month 1.07 (0.11) 1.19 (1.36) 4.87 
STNCHennessy Stance ESG 0.11 4 per month 0.70 (0.02) 1.48 (1.30) 3.02 

Other Forecasting Options for GraniteShares Platinum

For every potential investor in GraniteShares, whether a beginner or expert, GraniteShares Platinum's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. GraniteShares Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in GraniteShares. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying GraniteShares Platinum's price trends.

GraniteShares Platinum Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with GraniteShares Platinum etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of GraniteShares Platinum could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing GraniteShares Platinum by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

GraniteShares Platinum Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how GraniteShares Platinum etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading GraniteShares Platinum shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying GraniteShares Platinum etf market strength indicators, traders can identify GraniteShares Platinum Trust entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

GraniteShares Platinum Risk Indicators

The analysis of GraniteShares Platinum's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in GraniteShares Platinum's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting graniteshares etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for GraniteShares Platinum

The number of cover stories for GraniteShares Platinum depends on current market conditions and GraniteShares Platinum's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that GraniteShares Platinum is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about GraniteShares Platinum's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
When determining whether GraniteShares Platinum is a strong investment it is important to analyze GraniteShares Platinum's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact GraniteShares Platinum's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding GraniteShares Etf, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of GraniteShares Platinum to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Portfolio Center module to all portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios.
The market value of GraniteShares Platinum is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of GraniteShares that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of GraniteShares Platinum's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is GraniteShares Platinum's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because GraniteShares Platinum's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect GraniteShares Platinum's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between GraniteShares Platinum's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if GraniteShares Platinum is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, GraniteShares Platinum's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.