Prospector Opportunity Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

POPFX Fund  USD 17.77  0.00  0.00%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Prospector Opportunity Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 22.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 72.96. Prospector Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Prospector Opportunity's share price is below 20 indicating that the mutual fund is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Prospector Opportunity's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Prospector Opportunity Fund, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Prospector Opportunity hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Prospector Opportunity Fund from the perspective of Prospector Opportunity response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Prospector Opportunity Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 22.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 72.96.

Prospector Opportunity after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 17.77  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Your Equity Center to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any mutual fund could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in price.

Prospector Opportunity Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Prospector price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Prospector using various technical indicators. When you analyze Prospector charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for Prospector Opportunity is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Prospector Opportunity Fund value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Prospector Opportunity Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Prospector Opportunity Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 22.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.20, mean absolute percentage error of 3.34, and the sum of the absolute errors of 72.96.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Prospector Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Prospector Opportunity's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Prospector Opportunity Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Prospector OpportunityProspector Opportunity Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Prospector Opportunity mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Prospector Opportunity mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.3178
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.196
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0542
SAESum of the absolute errors72.9575
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Prospector Opportunity Fund. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Prospector Opportunity. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Prospector Opportunity

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Prospector Opportunity. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
11.8717.7723.67
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
13.3119.2125.11
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
12.1223.3534.58
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Prospector Opportunity. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Prospector Opportunity's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Prospector Opportunity's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Prospector Opportunity.

Prospector Opportunity After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Prospector Opportunity at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Prospector Opportunity or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Prospector Opportunity, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Prospector Opportunity Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Prospector Opportunity's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Prospector Opportunity's historical news coverage. Prospector Opportunity's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 11.87 and 23.67, respectively. We have considered Prospector Opportunity's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
17.77
17.77
After-hype Price
23.67
Upside
Prospector Opportunity is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Prospector Opportunity is based on 3 months time horizon.

Prospector Opportunity Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Prospector Opportunity is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Prospector Opportunity backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Prospector Opportunity, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.83 
5.90
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
Within a week
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
17.77
17.77
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Prospector Opportunity Hype Timeline

Prospector Opportunity is at this time traded for 17.77. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Prospector is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.83%. %. The volatility of related hype on Prospector Opportunity is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 17.77. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.56. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Prospector Opportunity last dividend was issued on the 4th of December 1970. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be within a week.
Check out Your Equity Center to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any mutual fund could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in price.

Prospector Opportunity Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Prospector Opportunity's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Prospector Opportunity's future price movements. Getting to know how Prospector Opportunity's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Prospector Opportunity may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Prospector Opportunity Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Prospector Opportunity mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Prospector Opportunity could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Prospector Opportunity by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Prospector Opportunity Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Prospector Opportunity mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Prospector Opportunity shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Prospector Opportunity mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Prospector Opportunity Fund entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Prospector Opportunity Risk Indicators

The analysis of Prospector Opportunity's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Prospector Opportunity's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting prospector mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Prospector Opportunity

The number of cover stories for Prospector Opportunity depends on current market conditions and Prospector Opportunity's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Prospector Opportunity is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Prospector Opportunity's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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Other Information on Investing in Prospector Mutual Fund

Prospector Opportunity financial ratios help investors to determine whether Prospector Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Prospector with respect to the benefits of owning Prospector Opportunity security.
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