Portland General Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| POR Stock | USD 48.07 0.50 1.05% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Portland General Electric on the next trading day is expected to be 49.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.54 and the sum of the absolute errors of 32.87. Portland Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Portland General's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Portland General's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Portland General fundamentals over time.
Portland |
Portland General Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Portland General's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 1999-12-31 | Previous Quarter 6 M | Current Value 35 M | Quarterly Volatility 77.4 M |
Portland General Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Portland General Electric on the next trading day is expected to be 49.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.54, mean absolute percentage error of 0.43, and the sum of the absolute errors of 32.87.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Portland Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Portland General's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Portland General Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Portland General | Portland General Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Portland General Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Portland General's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Portland General's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 48.38 and 50.40, respectively. We have considered Portland General's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Portland General stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Portland General stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.2641 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5388 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0114 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 32.8695 |
Predictive Modules for Portland General
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Portland General Electric. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Portland General
For every potential investor in Portland, whether a beginner or expert, Portland General's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Portland Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Portland. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Portland General's price trends.Portland General Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Portland General stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Portland General could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Portland General by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Portland General Electric Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Portland General's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Portland General's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Portland General Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Portland General stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Portland General shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Portland General stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Portland General Electric entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Portland General Risk Indicators
The analysis of Portland General's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Portland General's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting portland stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7838 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.9751 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.9956 | |||
| Variance | 0.9912 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.02 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.9508 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.82) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Portland General
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Portland General position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Portland General will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Portland Stock
| 0.61 | D | Dominion Energy | PairCorr |
| 0.71 | ED | Consolidated Edison | PairCorr |
| 0.61 | ES | Eversource Energy | PairCorr |
| 0.66 | FE | FirstEnergy | PairCorr |
Moving against Portland Stock
| 0.39 | VSTE | Vast Renewables Buyout Trend | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Portland General could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Portland General when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Portland General - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Portland General Electric to buy it.
The correlation of Portland General is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Portland General moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Portland General Electric moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Portland General can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for Portland Stock Analysis
When running Portland General's price analysis, check to measure Portland General's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Portland General is operating at the current time. Most of Portland General's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Portland General's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Portland General's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Portland General to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.