Public Power Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

PPC Stock  EUR 19.51  0.21  1.09%   
Public Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The value of RSI of Public Power's share price is above 70 at this time indicating that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Public, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 71

 Buy Stretched

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Public Power's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Public Power, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Public Power hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Public Power from the perspective of Public Power response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Public Power on the next trading day is expected to be 19.58 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.02.

Public Power after-hype prediction price

    
  EUR 19.3  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Public Power to cross-verify your projections.

Public Power Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Public price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Public using various technical indicators. When you analyze Public charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Triple exponential smoothing for Public Power - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Public Power prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Public Power price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Public Power.

Public Power Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Public Power on the next trading day is expected to be 19.58 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.02.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Public Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Public Power's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Public Power Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Public Power  Public Power Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Public Power Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Public Power's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Public Power's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 18.30 and 20.85, respectively. We have considered Public Power's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
19.51
19.58
Expected Value
20.85
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Public Power stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Public Power stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0209
MADMean absolute deviation0.1698
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0097
SAESum of the absolute errors10.0194
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Public Power observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Public Power observations.

Predictive Modules for Public Power

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Public Power. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
18.0319.3020.57
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
17.3721.4622.73
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
17.5518.4219.29
Details

Public Power After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Public Power at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Public Power or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Public Power, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Public Power Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Public Power's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Public Power's historical news coverage. Public Power's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 18.03 and 20.57, respectively. We have considered Public Power's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
19.51
19.30
After-hype Price
20.57
Upside
Public Power is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Public Power is based on 3 months time horizon.

Public Power Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Public Power is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Public Power backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Public Power, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.43 
1.27
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
Within a week
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
19.51
19.30
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Public Power Hype Timeline

Public Power is at this time traded for 19.51on Athens Exchange of Greece. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Public is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.43%. %. The volatility of related hype on Public Power is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 19.51. About 34.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.64. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Public Power recorded a loss per share of 0.39. The entity last dividend was issued on the 20th of July 2015. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be within a week.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Public Power to cross-verify your projections.

Public Power Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Public Power's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Public Power's future price movements. Getting to know how Public Power's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Public Power may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Public Power

For every potential investor in Public, whether a beginner or expert, Public Power's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Public Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Public. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Public Power's price trends.

Public Power Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Public Power stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Public Power could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Public Power by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Public Power Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Public Power stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Public Power shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Public Power stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Public Power entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Public Power Risk Indicators

The analysis of Public Power's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Public Power's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting public stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Public Power

The number of cover stories for Public Power depends on current market conditions and Public Power's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Public Power is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Public Power's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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Additional Tools for Public Stock Analysis

When running Public Power's price analysis, check to measure Public Power's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Public Power is operating at the current time. Most of Public Power's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Public Power's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Public Power's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Public Power to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.