Abrdn Physical Etf Forecast - Naive Prediction
| PPLT Etf | USD 252.25 11.76 4.89% |
Abrdn Etf outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength momentum indicator of Abrdn Physical's share price is above 70 at this time indicating that the etf is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Abrdn, making its price go up or down. Momentum 70
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Abrdn Physical hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of abrdn Physical Platinum from the perspective of Abrdn Physical response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Abrdn Physical using Abrdn Physical's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Abrdn using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Abrdn Physical's stock price.
Abrdn Physical Implied Volatility | 0.56 |
Abrdn Physical's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of abrdn Physical Platinum stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Abrdn Physical's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Abrdn Physical stock will not fluctuate a lot when Abrdn Physical's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of abrdn Physical Platinum on the next trading day is expected to be 260.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 318.78. Abrdn Physical after-hype prediction price | USD 252.25 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Abrdn Physical to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Abrdn contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that abrdn Physical Platinum will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.035% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Abrdn Physical trading at USD 252.25, that is roughly USD 0.0883 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Abrdn Physical's daily price movement you should consider acquiring abrdn Physical Platinum options at the current volatility level of 0.56%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Abrdn Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Abrdn Physical's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Abrdn Physical's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Abrdn Physical stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Abrdn Physical's open interest, investors have to compare it to Abrdn Physical's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Abrdn Physical is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Abrdn. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Abrdn Physical Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Abrdn price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Abrdn using various technical indicators. When you analyze Abrdn charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Abrdn Physical Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of abrdn Physical Platinum on the next trading day is expected to be 260.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.23, mean absolute percentage error of 51.37, and the sum of the absolute errors of 318.78.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Abrdn Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Abrdn Physical's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Abrdn Physical Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Abrdn Physical | Abrdn Physical Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Abrdn Physical Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Abrdn Physical's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Abrdn Physical's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 256.52 and 263.63, respectively. We have considered Abrdn Physical's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Abrdn Physical etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Abrdn Physical etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 122.0495 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 5.2258 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0298 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 318.7759 |
Predictive Modules for Abrdn Physical
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as abrdn Physical Platinum. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Abrdn Physical After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Abrdn Physical at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Abrdn Physical or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of Abrdn Physical, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Abrdn Physical Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Abrdn Physical's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Abrdn Physical's historical news coverage. Abrdn Physical's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 248.72 and 255.78, respectively. We have considered Abrdn Physical's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Abrdn Physical is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of abrdn Physical Platinum is based on 3 months time horizon.
Abrdn Physical Etf Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as Abrdn Physical is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Abrdn Physical backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Abrdn Physical, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.98 | 3.56 | 1.01 | 0.18 | 18 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 18 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
252.25 | 252.25 | 0.00 |
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Abrdn Physical Hype Timeline
abrdn Physical Platinum is at this time traded for 252.25. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 1.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.18. Abrdn is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.98%. %. The volatility of related hype on Abrdn Physical is about 1903.74%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 252.43. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 18 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Abrdn Physical to cross-verify your projections.Abrdn Physical Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Abrdn Physical's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Abrdn Physical's future price movements. Getting to know how Abrdn Physical's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Abrdn Physical may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| JPEF | JPMorgan Equity Focus | 0.05 | 2 per month | 0.79 | (0.08) | 1.02 | (1.21) | 3.90 | |
| DGS | WisdomTree Emerging Markets | 0.07 | 3 per month | 0.52 | 0.07 | 0.97 | (1.02) | 2.33 | |
| FLQL | Franklin LibertyQ Equity | 0.34 | 4 per month | 0.84 | (0.03) | 1.09 | (1.48) | 3.87 | |
| SPUS | SP Funds SP | 0.14 | 3 per month | 0.95 | (0.04) | 1.27 | (1.64) | 4.29 | |
| TCHP | T Rowe Price | 0.24 | 5 per month | 1.22 | (0.07) | 1.59 | (1.83) | 5.01 | |
| RWJ | Invesco SP SmallCap | (0.14) | 4 per month | 0.90 | 0.05 | 2.07 | (1.75) | 5.47 | |
| PXH | Invesco FTSE RAFI | 0.49 | 26 per month | 0.51 | 0.07 | 1.34 | (1.06) | 3.02 | |
| CGSD | Capital Group Short | (0.04) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.88) | 0.15 | (0.08) | 0.27 | |
| AOM | iShares Core Moderate | 0.20 | 3 per month | 0.30 | (0.14) | 0.59 | (0.49) | 1.71 | |
| IDU | iShares Utilities ETF | 0.52 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 1.14 | (1.28) | 3.62 |
Other Forecasting Options for Abrdn Physical
For every potential investor in Abrdn, whether a beginner or expert, Abrdn Physical's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Abrdn Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Abrdn. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Abrdn Physical's price trends.Abrdn Physical Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Abrdn Physical etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Abrdn Physical could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Abrdn Physical by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Abrdn Physical Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Abrdn Physical etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Abrdn Physical shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Abrdn Physical etf market strength indicators, traders can identify abrdn Physical Platinum entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Abrdn Physical Risk Indicators
The analysis of Abrdn Physical's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Abrdn Physical's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting abrdn etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.65 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.95 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.6 | |||
| Variance | 12.99 | |||
| Downside Variance | 13.54 | |||
| Semi Variance | 8.73 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.94) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Abrdn Physical
The number of cover stories for Abrdn Physical depends on current market conditions and Abrdn Physical's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Abrdn Physical is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Abrdn Physical's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Abrdn Physical to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.
The market value of abrdn Physical Platinum is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Abrdn that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Abrdn Physical's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Abrdn Physical's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Abrdn Physical's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Abrdn Physical's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Abrdn Physical's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Abrdn Physical is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Abrdn Physical's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.