UBS Pace Mutual Fund Forward View

PREQX Fund

USD 6.70 -0.01 -0.15%

UBS Pace's Naive Prediction forecast is computed from observed closing prices over the selected horizon. The accuracy statistics below distinguish a well-fitted model from one that is smoothing over meaningful price movement. The fit is assessed against recent observations, so the output reflects the latest available data. The Naive Prediction model projects UBS Pace at 6.58 for the next trading day, below the most recent closing price. The Naive Prediction output reflects statistical model results and is provided for reference purposes.

A naive forecasting model for UBS Pace is a special case of the moving average where the smoothing period is one. The forecast for UBS Pace Global on a given trading day is simply the observed closing price of the previous period. Because it uses only a single lag, this model is limited to one-period-ahead forecasts.

Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 9th of May

Over a 90-day horizon, the Naive Prediction model forecasts UBS Pace at 6.58 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.01 , and sum of absolute errors of 4.36 .

This represents a very tight forecast — the model closely tracks UBS Pace's recent price behavior. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.

Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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UBS Pace Price Prediction

Research Analysis

Forecasted Value

UBS Pace's next-session forecast estimates practical downside and upside boundaries based on the model's historical fit. The current forecast range spans downside near 5.70 and upside near 7.46. The wide range indicates elevated uncertainty in short-term projections.

Market Value

6.70

5.70

Downside

6.58

Expected Value

7.46

Upside

Target Odds

Above Odds

Below Odds

Model Predictive Factors

The table below summarizes the Naive Prediction model's error metrics for UBS Pace mutual fund. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.

AIC	Akaike Information Criteria	114.9157
Bias	Arithmetic mean of the errors	None
MAD	Mean absolute deviation	0.0703
MAPE	Mean absolute percentage error	0.0109
SAE	Sum of the absolute errors	4.357

The naive model produces a tight forecast range but offers no smoothing of noise or trend detection. It serves primarily as a baseline benchmark — if a more complex model cannot outperform the naive forecast, it may indicate that UBS Pace price movements are largely random over the selected horizon.

Other Forecasting Options for UBS Pace

Analyzing UBS Pace's price movement through moving averages at different time horizons reveals whether short-term momentum aligns with the longer-term trend. Touches of the upper or lower band in UBS Pace's chart signal overbought or oversold conditions. The rate of change in UBS Pace's trading volume often precedes price movements in UBS Pace.

UBS Pace Comparable Funds

The related funds below provide a category-based comparison set for UBS Pace's. Useful comparisons usually include net asset value behavior, total return, volatility, distribution profile, and leverage. Category-relative analysis helps separate fund-specific behavior from broader market moves affecting the whole group. This makes the peer set a useful category benchmark for UBS Pace.

Enhanced Fixed Income Deutsche Science And Fpa Flexible Fixed Connors Hedged Equity Pioneer Global Equity Rationalrgn Hedged Equity Huber Capital Equity American Airlines Group Alcoa Corp Apple Inc Best Buy Co Citigroup SentinelOne CVS Health Corp Chevron Corp

Risk & Return

Correlation

UBS Pace Market Strength Events

For investors tracking UBS Pace Global, market strength indicators offer quantitative evaluation of mutual fund behavior. When Rate of Change diverges from price direction, it often signals weakening momentum before a visible reversal in UBS Pace. These metrics are particularly useful when UBS Pace mutual fund shows divergence from broader market trends.

	Rate Of Daily Change	1.0
	Day Median Price	6.7
	Day Typical Price	6.7
	Price Action Indicator	-0.01
	Period Momentum Indicator	-0.01
	Relative Strength Index	59.06

UBS Pace Risk Indicators

Analyzing UBS Pace's basic risk indicators provides a structured view of the risk-return trade-off for ubs pace mutual fund. Expected shortfall estimates the average loss in the worst-case tail scenarios, going beyond what standard deviation alone captures for UBS Pace. Semi-deviation focuses exclusively on returns below the mean, making it a more conservative risk gauge for UBS Pace than full standard deviation.

	Mean Deviation	0.6637
	Semi Deviation	0.7857
	Standard Deviation	0.8773
	Variance	0.7696
	Downside Variance	0.7753
	Semi Variance	0.6173
	Expected Short fall	-0.75

Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

	Naive Prediction
	Simple Exponential Smoothing
	Double Exponential Smoothing
	Triple Exponential Smoothing
	Simple Regression
	Polynomial Regression
	Simple Moving Average
	4 Period Moving Average
	8 Period Moving Average
	20 Period Moving Average