PermRock Royalty Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| PRT Stock | USD 3.44 0.04 1.18% |
PermRock Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The value of relative strength index of PermRock Royalty's share price is at 52 indicating that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling PermRock Royalty, making its price go up or down. Momentum 52
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.17) | Wall Street Target Price 2 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.20) |
Using PermRock Royalty hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of PermRock Royalty Trust from the perspective of PermRock Royalty response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of PermRock Royalty Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 3.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.31. PermRock Royalty after-hype prediction price | USD 3.41 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of PermRock Royalty to cross-verify your projections. PermRock Royalty Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine PermRock price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for PermRock using various technical indicators. When you analyze PermRock charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
PermRock Royalty Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of PermRock Royalty Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 3.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.31.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict PermRock Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that PermRock Royalty's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
PermRock Royalty Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest PermRock Royalty | PermRock Royalty Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
PermRock Royalty Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting PermRock Royalty's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. PermRock Royalty's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.88 and 6.10, respectively. We have considered PermRock Royalty's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of PermRock Royalty stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent PermRock Royalty stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0034 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0561 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0171 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3.3108 |
Predictive Modules for PermRock Royalty
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as PermRock Royalty Trust. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.PermRock Royalty After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of PermRock Royalty at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in PermRock Royalty or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of PermRock Royalty, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
PermRock Royalty Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting PermRock Royalty's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on PermRock Royalty's historical news coverage. PermRock Royalty's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.80 and 6.02, respectively. We have considered PermRock Royalty's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
PermRock Royalty is unstable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of PermRock Royalty Trust is based on 3 months time horizon.
PermRock Royalty Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as PermRock Royalty is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading PermRock Royalty backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with PermRock Royalty, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.18 | 2.61 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 7 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
3.44 | 3.41 | 0.87 |
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PermRock Royalty Hype Timeline
On the 29th of January PermRock Royalty Trust is traded for 3.44. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. PermRock is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 3.41. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.87%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.18%. The volatility of related hype on PermRock Royalty is about 22837.5%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 3.44. About 40.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.59. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. PermRock Royalty Trust has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.51. The entity last dividend was issued on the 30th of January 2026. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of PermRock Royalty to cross-verify your projections.PermRock Royalty Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to PermRock Royalty's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict PermRock Royalty's future price movements. Getting to know how PermRock Royalty's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how PermRock Royalty may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CRT | Cross Timbers Royalty | (0.13) | 9 per month | 1.92 | 0.08 | 4.59 | (4.00) | 12.64 | |
| VOC | VOC Energy Trust | (0.05) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 3.47 | (3.39) | 10.32 | |
| MVO | MV Oil Trust | (0.24) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 13.04 | (18.25) | 65.28 | |
| NRT | North European Oil | 0.29 | 6 per month | 2.72 | 0.23 | 7.60 | (4.38) | 22.09 | |
| PVL | Permianville Royalty Trust | 0.01 | 8 per month | 1.56 | (0.03) | 2.91 | (3.28) | 10.04 | |
| MTR | Mesa Royalty Trust | 0.01 | 17 per month | 2.83 | 0.01 | 6.19 | (5.38) | 17.46 | |
| MARPS | Marine Petroleum Trust | 0.03 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 5.45 | (4.08) | 31.24 |
Other Forecasting Options for PermRock Royalty
For every potential investor in PermRock, whether a beginner or expert, PermRock Royalty's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. PermRock Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in PermRock. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying PermRock Royalty's price trends.PermRock Royalty Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with PermRock Royalty stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of PermRock Royalty could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing PermRock Royalty by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
PermRock Royalty Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how PermRock Royalty stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading PermRock Royalty shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying PermRock Royalty stock market strength indicators, traders can identify PermRock Royalty Trust entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
PermRock Royalty Risk Indicators
The analysis of PermRock Royalty's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in PermRock Royalty's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting permrock stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.69 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.52 | |||
| Variance | 6.33 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for PermRock Royalty
The number of cover stories for PermRock Royalty depends on current market conditions and PermRock Royalty's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that PermRock Royalty is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about PermRock Royalty's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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PermRock Royalty Short Properties
PermRock Royalty's future price predictability will typically decrease when PermRock Royalty's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of PermRock Royalty Trust often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential PermRock Royalty's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. PermRock Royalty's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 12.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.6 M |
Additional Tools for PermRock Stock Analysis
When running PermRock Royalty's price analysis, check to measure PermRock Royalty's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy PermRock Royalty is operating at the current time. Most of PermRock Royalty's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of PermRock Royalty's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move PermRock Royalty's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of PermRock Royalty to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.