Invesco SP Etf Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| PSCT Etf | USD 62.58 1.87 3.08% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Invesco SP SmallCap on the next trading day is expected to be 62.58 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.86 and the sum of the absolute errors of 51.53. Invesco Etf Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength momentum indicator of Invesco SP's share price is below 20 indicating that the etf is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Invesco SP hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Invesco SP SmallCap from the perspective of Invesco SP response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Invesco SP using Invesco SP's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Invesco using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Invesco SP's stock price.
Invesco SP Implied Volatility | 0.32 |
Invesco SP's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Invesco SP SmallCap stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Invesco SP's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Invesco SP stock will not fluctuate a lot when Invesco SP's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Invesco SP SmallCap on the next trading day is expected to be 62.58 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.86 and the sum of the absolute errors of 51.53. Invesco SP after-hype prediction price | USD 62.73 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Invesco SP to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Invesco contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Invesco SP SmallCap will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.02% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Invesco SP trading at USD 62.58, that is roughly USD 0.0125 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Invesco SP's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Invesco SP SmallCap options at the current volatility level of 0.32%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Invesco Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Invesco SP's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Invesco SP's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Invesco SP stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Invesco SP's open interest, investors have to compare it to Invesco SP's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Invesco SP is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Invesco. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Invesco SP Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Invesco price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Invesco using various technical indicators. When you analyze Invesco charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Invesco SP Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Invesco SP SmallCap on the next trading day is expected to be 62.58 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.86, mean absolute percentage error of 1.29, and the sum of the absolute errors of 51.53.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Invesco Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Invesco SP's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Invesco SP Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Invesco SP | Invesco SP Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Invesco SP Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Invesco SP's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Invesco SP's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 60.60 and 64.56, respectively. We have considered Invesco SP's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Invesco SP etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Invesco SP etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.5266 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0772 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.8588 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0149 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 51.53 |
Predictive Modules for Invesco SP
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Invesco SP SmallCap. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Invesco SP's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Invesco SP After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Invesco SP at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Invesco SP or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of Invesco SP, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Invesco SP Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Invesco SP's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Invesco SP's historical news coverage. Invesco SP's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 60.75 and 64.71, respectively. We have considered Invesco SP's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Invesco SP is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Invesco SP SmallCap is based on 3 months time horizon.
Invesco SP Etf Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as Invesco SP is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Invesco SP backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Invesco SP, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.15 | 1.98 | 0.15 | 0.23 | 2 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
62.58 | 62.73 | 0.24 |
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Invesco SP Hype Timeline
Invesco SP SmallCap is at this time traded for 62.58. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.15, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.23. Invesco is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 62.73 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 0.24%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.15%. The volatility of related hype on Invesco SP is about 127.25%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 62.81. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Invesco SP to cross-verify your projections.Invesco SP Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Invesco SP's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Invesco SP's future price movements. Getting to know how Invesco SP's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Invesco SP may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| XMVM | Invesco SP MidCap | (0.07) | 3 per month | 0.42 | 0.10 | 2.17 | (1.08) | 4.22 | |
| XSHQ | Invesco SP SmallCap | (1.82) | 5 per month | 0.84 | (0.0009) | 2.15 | (1.32) | 4.54 | |
| IDLV | Invesco SP International | 0.07 | 2 per month | 0.43 | (0.07) | 0.73 | (0.87) | 2.69 | |
| XJH | iShares ESG Screened | 0.05 | 3 per month | 0.73 | 0.05 | 1.95 | (1.50) | 3.83 | |
| RSPF | Invesco SP 500 | 0.06 | 21 per month | 0.84 | (0.02) | 1.46 | (1.36) | 4.56 | |
| JULW | AIM ETF Products | (0.04) | 1 per month | 0.11 | (0.28) | 0.37 | (0.34) | 1.23 | |
| HEQT | Simplify Exchange Traded | 0.17 | 6 per month | 0.30 | (0.12) | 0.61 | (0.66) | 2.14 | |
| VSLU | ETF Opportunities Trust | 17.84 | 9 per month | 0.84 | (0.06) | 1.38 | (1.06) | 5.22 | |
| CLOU | Global X Cloud | 0.08 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 1.76 | (2.64) | 5.70 | |
| BKCH | Global X Blockchain | (0.78) | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 8.25 | (7.98) | 21.79 |
Other Forecasting Options for Invesco SP
For every potential investor in Invesco, whether a beginner or expert, Invesco SP's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Invesco Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Invesco. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Invesco SP's price trends.Invesco SP Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Invesco SP etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Invesco SP could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Invesco SP by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Invesco SP Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Invesco SP etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Invesco SP shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Invesco SP etf market strength indicators, traders can identify Invesco SP SmallCap entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Invesco SP Risk Indicators
The analysis of Invesco SP's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Invesco SP's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting invesco etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.51 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.01 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.01 | |||
| Variance | 4.04 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.27 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.05 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.47) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Invesco SP
The number of cover stories for Invesco SP depends on current market conditions and Invesco SP's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Invesco SP is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Invesco SP's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Invesco SP to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.
The market value of Invesco SP SmallCap is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Invesco that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Invesco SP's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Invesco SP's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Invesco SP's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Invesco SP's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Invesco SP's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Invesco SP is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Invesco SP's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.