Pergamon Status Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| PSDTC Stock | TRY 75.65 0.90 1.18% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Pergamon Status Dis on the next trading day is expected to be 75.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 182.00. Pergamon Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Pergamon Status' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
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Pergamon Status Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 3rd of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Pergamon Status Dis on the next trading day is expected to be 75.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.03, mean absolute percentage error of 18.78, and the sum of the absolute errors of 182.00.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Pergamon Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Pergamon Status' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Pergamon Status Stock Forecast Pattern
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Pergamon Status Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Pergamon Status' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Pergamon Status' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 71.18 and 80.12, respectively. We have considered Pergamon Status' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Pergamon Status stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Pergamon Status stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.2053 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1117 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.0333 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.032 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 182.0 |
Predictive Modules for Pergamon Status
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Pergamon Status Dis. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Pergamon Status' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Pergamon Status
For every potential investor in Pergamon, whether a beginner or expert, Pergamon Status' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Pergamon Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Pergamon. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Pergamon Status' price trends.Pergamon Status Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Pergamon Status stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Pergamon Status could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Pergamon Status by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Pergamon Status Dis Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Pergamon Status' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Pergamon Status' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Pergamon Status Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Pergamon Status stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Pergamon Status shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Pergamon Status stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Pergamon Status Dis entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Pergamon Status Risk Indicators
The analysis of Pergamon Status' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Pergamon Status' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting pergamon stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.22 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.58 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.44 | |||
| Variance | 19.72 | |||
| Downside Variance | 15.03 | |||
| Semi Variance | 12.8 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.90) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Other Information on Investing in Pergamon Stock
Pergamon Status financial ratios help investors to determine whether Pergamon Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Pergamon with respect to the benefits of owning Pergamon Status security.