Spectrum International Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Moving Average

PSILX Fund  USD 18.40  0.09  0.49%   
Spectrum Mutual Fund outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Spectrum International's mutual fund price is slightly above 61 indicating that the mutual fund is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Spectrum, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 61

 Buy Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Spectrum International's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Spectrum International Fund, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Spectrum International hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Spectrum International Fund from the perspective of Spectrum International response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Spectrum International Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 18.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.86.

Spectrum International after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 18.4  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Spectrum International to cross-verify your projections.

Spectrum International Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Spectrum price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Spectrum using various technical indicators. When you analyze Spectrum charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A two period moving average forecast for Spectrum International is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

Spectrum International Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 27th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Spectrum International Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 18.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.86.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Spectrum Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Spectrum International's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Spectrum International Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Spectrum International  Spectrum International Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Spectrum International Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Spectrum International's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Spectrum International's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 17.25 and 19.55, respectively. We have considered Spectrum International's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
18.40
18.40
Expected Value
19.55
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Spectrum International mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Spectrum International mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria111.4334
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0342
MADMean absolute deviation0.1503
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0086
SAESum of the absolute errors8.865
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Spectrum International Fund price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Spectrum International. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future

Predictive Modules for Spectrum International

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Spectrum International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
17.2518.4019.55
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
16.9918.1419.29
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
17.2317.9218.61
Details

Spectrum International After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Spectrum International at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Spectrum International or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Spectrum International, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Spectrum International Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Spectrum International's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Spectrum International's historical news coverage. Spectrum International's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 17.25 and 19.55, respectively. We have considered Spectrum International's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
18.40
18.40
After-hype Price
19.55
Upside
Spectrum International is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Spectrum International is based on 3 months time horizon.

Spectrum International Mutual Fund Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Spectrum International is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Spectrum International backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Spectrum International, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.13 
1.15
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
1 Events / Month
Within a week
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
18.40
18.40
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Spectrum International Hype Timeline

Spectrum International is at this time traded for 18.40. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Spectrum is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.13%. %. The volatility of related hype on Spectrum International is about 3833.33%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 18.40. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.64. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Spectrum International last dividend was issued on the 20th of December 2019. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next expected press release will be within a week.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Spectrum International to cross-verify your projections.

Spectrum International Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Spectrum International's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Spectrum International's future price movements. Getting to know how Spectrum International's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Spectrum International may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Spectrum International

For every potential investor in Spectrum, whether a beginner or expert, Spectrum International's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Spectrum Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Spectrum. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Spectrum International's price trends.

Spectrum International Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Spectrum International mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Spectrum International could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Spectrum International by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Spectrum International Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Spectrum International mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Spectrum International shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Spectrum International mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Spectrum International Fund entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Spectrum International Risk Indicators

The analysis of Spectrum International's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Spectrum International's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting spectrum mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Spectrum International

The number of cover stories for Spectrum International depends on current market conditions and Spectrum International's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Spectrum International is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Spectrum International's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Other Information on Investing in Spectrum Mutual Fund

Spectrum International financial ratios help investors to determine whether Spectrum Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Spectrum with respect to the benefits of owning Spectrum International security.
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