Pelthos Therapeutics Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| PTHS Stock | 24.75 0.40 1.64% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Pelthos Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 22.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.30 and the sum of the absolute errors of 140.12. Pelthos Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Pelthos Therapeutics' share price is below 20 indicating that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Pelthos Therapeutics hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Pelthos Therapeutics from the perspective of Pelthos Therapeutics response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Pelthos Therapeutics Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Pelthos Therapeutics' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Pelthos. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Pelthos can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Pelthos Therapeutics. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Pelthos Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 22.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.30 and the sum of the absolute errors of 140.12.
Pelthos Therapeutics after-hype prediction price | USD 24.31 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Pelthos Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections. Pelthos Therapeutics Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Pelthos price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Pelthos using various technical indicators. When you analyze Pelthos charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Pelthos Therapeutics Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Pelthos Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 22.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.30, mean absolute percentage error of 7.78, and the sum of the absolute errors of 140.12.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Pelthos Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Pelthos Therapeutics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Pelthos Therapeutics Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Pelthos Therapeutics | Pelthos Therapeutics Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Pelthos Therapeutics Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Pelthos Therapeutics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Pelthos Therapeutics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 17.42 and 27.94, respectively. We have considered Pelthos Therapeutics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Pelthos Therapeutics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Pelthos Therapeutics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.1624 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.2971 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0838 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 140.1222 |
Predictive Modules for Pelthos Therapeutics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Pelthos Therapeutics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Pelthos Therapeutics After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Pelthos Therapeutics at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Pelthos Therapeutics or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Pelthos Therapeutics, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Pelthos Therapeutics Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Pelthos Therapeutics' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Pelthos Therapeutics' historical news coverage. Pelthos Therapeutics' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 19.06 and 29.56, respectively. We have considered Pelthos Therapeutics' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Pelthos Therapeutics is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Pelthos Therapeutics is based on 3 months time horizon.
Pelthos Therapeutics Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Pelthos Therapeutics is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Pelthos Therapeutics backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Pelthos Therapeutics, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.28 | 5.26 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 8 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
24.75 | 24.31 | 0.16 |
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Pelthos Therapeutics Hype Timeline
Pelthos Therapeutics is at this time traded for 24.75. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Pelthos is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 24.31. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.16%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.28%. The volatility of related hype on Pelthos Therapeutics is about 43833.33%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 24.75. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Pelthos Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections.Pelthos Therapeutics Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Pelthos Therapeutics' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Pelthos Therapeutics' future price movements. Getting to know how Pelthos Therapeutics' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Pelthos Therapeutics may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CASI | CASI Pharmaceuticals | (0.07) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 5.88 | (7.69) | 32.11 | |
| LSTA | Lisata Therapeutics | (0.07) | 7 per month | 2.85 | 0.10 | 5.58 | (5.26) | 85.83 | |
| CLSD | Clearside Biomedical | 0.36 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.27) | 7.96 | (17.54) | 83.67 | |
| KAPA | Kairos Pharma | 0.12 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 9.41 | (9.28) | 26.15 | |
| LEXX | Lexaria Bioscience Corp | (0.18) | 15 per month | 8.87 | 0.01 | 8.94 | (9.68) | 42.53 | |
| PASG | Passage Bio | (0.07) | 7 per month | 5.98 | 0.14 | 14.59 | (9.29) | 58.13 | |
| LIXT | Lixte Biotechnology Holdings | 0.15 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 7.19 | (7.45) | 19.11 | |
| ENLV | Enlivex Therapeutics | (0.03) | 12 per month | 4.04 | 0.01 | 8.57 | (7.53) | 24.21 | |
| MTVA | MetaVia | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 11.60 | (20.10) | 79.95 | |
| CING | Cingulate | (0.33) | 7 per month | 4.51 | 0.09 | 7.46 | (6.75) | 20.19 |
Other Forecasting Options for Pelthos Therapeutics
For every potential investor in Pelthos, whether a beginner or expert, Pelthos Therapeutics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Pelthos Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Pelthos. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Pelthos Therapeutics' price trends.Pelthos Therapeutics Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Pelthos Therapeutics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Pelthos Therapeutics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Pelthos Therapeutics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Pelthos Therapeutics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Pelthos Therapeutics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Pelthos Therapeutics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Pelthos Therapeutics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Pelthos Therapeutics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Pelthos Therapeutics Risk Indicators
The analysis of Pelthos Therapeutics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Pelthos Therapeutics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting pelthos stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.0 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.28 | |||
| Variance | 27.9 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Pelthos Therapeutics
The number of cover stories for Pelthos Therapeutics depends on current market conditions and Pelthos Therapeutics' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Pelthos Therapeutics is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Pelthos Therapeutics' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Pelthos Therapeutics Short Properties
Pelthos Therapeutics' future price predictability will typically decrease when Pelthos Therapeutics' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Pelthos Therapeutics often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Pelthos Therapeutics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Pelthos Therapeutics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 587.6 K | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 513.4 K |
Additional Tools for Pelthos Stock Analysis
When running Pelthos Therapeutics' price analysis, check to measure Pelthos Therapeutics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Pelthos Therapeutics is operating at the current time. Most of Pelthos Therapeutics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Pelthos Therapeutics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Pelthos Therapeutics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Pelthos Therapeutics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.