GraniteShares ETF Forward View

PTIR ETF

13.59 -2.21 -13.99%

Naive Prediction is applied to GraniteShares 2x Long's daily closing prices, and the resulting forecast is presented with accuracy metrics. Wide deviation between fitted and observed values suggests the model's assumptions may not match current market conditions. These values update automatically with each new closing price. AIC measures relative model quality — lower AIC values indicate a better-fitting model. The Naive Prediction model projects GraniteShares at 12.27 for the next trading day, below the most recent closing price. This Naive Prediction output is provided as analytical reference and does not constitute a trading recommendation.

A naive forecasting model for GraniteShares is a special case of the moving average where the smoothing period is one. The forecast for GraniteShares 2x Long on a given trading day is simply the observed closing price of the previous period. Because it uses only a single lag, this model is limited to one-period-ahead forecasts.

Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 7th of May

Over a 90-day horizon, the Naive Prediction model forecasts GraniteShares at 12.27 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 0.82 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.05 , and sum of absolute errors of 50.01 .

This indicates moderate forecast accuracy — the model captures the general trend but not all short-term variation in GraniteShares' price. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.

ETF Forecast Pattern

Backtest GraniteShares

GraniteShares Price Prediction

Research Analysis

Forecasted Value

This forecast for GraniteShares frames the expected trading range using downside and upside bounds rather than a single point target. Downside is estimated near 5.77 and upside near 18.76. The wide range indicates elevated uncertainty in short-term projections.

Market Value

13.59

5.77

Downside

12.27

Expected Value

18.76

Upside

Target Odds

Above Odds

Below Odds

Model Predictive Factors

The table below summarizes the Naive Prediction model's error metrics for GraniteShares ETF. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.

AIC	Akaike Information Criteria	118.1176
Bias	Arithmetic mean of the errors	None
MAD	Mean absolute deviation	0.8198
MAPE	Mean absolute percentage error	0.0528
SAE	Sum of the absolute errors	50.01

The naive model produces a tight forecast range but offers no smoothing of noise or trend detection. It serves primarily as a baseline benchmark — if a more complex model cannot outperform the naive forecast, it may indicate that GraniteShares price movements are largely random over the selected horizon.

Other Forecasting Options for GraniteShares

The distribution of GraniteShares' daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This reveals hidden support and resistance zones in GraniteShares' chart that simple price charts miss. The slope of GraniteShares' linear regression channel quantifies trend direction and strength over a chosen lookback period. Divergences between OBV and price foreshadow trend changes in GraniteShares.

GraniteShares Related Equities

These related stocks within the Trading--Leveraged Equity space give benchmarks for judging GraniteShares' results, margins, and growth trend. Market cap and total value checks frame GraniteShares' size within the competitive field. Persistent outperformance or underperformance by specific peers relative to GraniteShares often signals structural advantages or weaknesses. Tracking GraniteShares' results against these peers over time helps spot rising trends early.

Direxion Daily FTSE iShares Emerging Markets Global X SuperDividend iShares Energy ETF iShares Micro Cap ETF iShares Asia 50 Vanguard Emerging Markets ALPS OShares Small Cap iShares SAMPP GSCI Invesco SAMPP MidCap American Airlines Group Alcoa Corp Apple Inc Best Buy Co Citigroup

Risk & Return

Correlation

GraniteShares Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators for GraniteShares ETF provide a framework for assessing security responsiveness. A rising Accumulation/Distribution line alongside rising price confirms institutional buying interest in GraniteShares. Median and Typical Price smooth out intraday extremes, providing a cleaner reference level for evaluating GraniteShares sessions. Persistent divergence between momentum indicators and price often precedes trend reversals in GraniteShares.

	Accumulation Distribution	0.12
	Daily Balance Of Power	-1.26
	Rate Of Daily Change	0.86
	Day Median Price	14.22
	Day Typical Price	14.01
	Market Facilitation Index	1.75
	Price Action Indicator	-1.73
	Period Momentum Indicator	-2.21
	Relative Strength Index	44.38

GraniteShares Risk Indicators

Assessing GraniteShares' risk indicators is a structured way to evaluate the risk-return trade-off for graniteshares etf. The level of risk embedded in GraniteShares' feeds directly into exposure calibration. Comparing GraniteShares' downside variance to total variance reveals whether the risk profile is skewed toward losses. These risk measures complement the price analysis above by framing how dispersed recent returns have been.

	Mean Deviation	5.54
	Standard Deviation	7.37
	Variance	54.31

Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

	Naive Prediction
	Simple Exponential Smoothing
	Double Exponential Smoothing
	Triple Exponential Smoothing
	Simple Regression
	Polynomial Regression
	Simple Moving Average
	4 Period Moving Average
	8 Period Moving Average
	20 Period Moving Average