Pratama Widya Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| PTPW Stock | IDR 1,000.00 5.00 0.50% |
Pratama Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of now the value of rsi of Pratama Widya's share price is below 20 indicating that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 2
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Pratama Widya hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Pratama Widya Tbk from the perspective of Pratama Widya response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Pratama Widya Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 1,000.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.92 and the sum of the absolute errors of 355.00. Pratama Widya after-hype prediction price | IDR 1000.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Pratama |
Pratama Widya Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Pratama price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Pratama using various technical indicators. When you analyze Pratama charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Pratama Widya Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 2nd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Pratama Widya Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 1,000.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.92, mean absolute percentage error of 62.92, and the sum of the absolute errors of 355.00.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Pratama Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Pratama Widya's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Pratama Widya Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Pratama Widya | Pratama Widya Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Pratama Widya Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Pratama Widya's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Pratama Widya's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 999.22 and 1,001, respectively. We have considered Pratama Widya's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Pratama Widya stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Pratama Widya stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.4144 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.25 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 5.9167 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0059 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 355.0 |
Predictive Modules for Pratama Widya
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Pratama Widya Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Pratama Widya After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Pratama Widya at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Pratama Widya or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Pratama Widya, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Pratama Widya Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Pratama Widya's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Pratama Widya's historical news coverage. Pratama Widya's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 999.22 and 1,001, respectively. We have considered Pratama Widya's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Pratama Widya is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Pratama Widya Tbk is based on 3 months time horizon.
Pratama Widya Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Pratama Widya is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Pratama Widya backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Pratama Widya, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.04 | 0.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
1,000.00 | 1,000.00 | 0.00 |
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Pratama Widya Hype Timeline
Pratama Widya Tbk is at this time traded for 1,000.00on Jakarta Exchange of Indonesia. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Pratama is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.04%. %. The volatility of related hype on Pratama Widya is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1,000.00. About 90.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 75.33. Pratama Widya Tbk had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Pratama Widya to cross-verify your projections.Pratama Widya Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Pratama Widya's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Pratama Widya's future price movements. Getting to know how Pratama Widya's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Pratama Widya may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PTPP | Pembangunan Perumahan PT | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 5.99 | (3.47) | 16.99 | |
| ACST | Acset Indonusa Tbk | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 3.97 | (5.15) | 29.80 | |
| ADHI | Adhi Karya Persero | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 4.00 | (3.39) | 11.47 | |
| PBSA | Paramita Bangun Sarana | 0.00 | 0 per month | 5.79 | 0.02 | 10.82 | (11.86) | 39.30 | |
| MLIA | PT Mulia Industrindo | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 1.23 | (1.83) | 5.28 | |
| MBSS | Mitrabahtera Segara Sejati | 0.00 | 0 per month | 5.57 | 0.07 | 14.65 | (9.62) | 39.66 | |
| TOTL | Total Bangun Persada | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.61 | 0.01 | 3.47 | (1.96) | 15.30 | |
| BOLT | Garuda Metalindo Tbk | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 1.85 | (2.45) | 15.09 | |
| NRCA | Nusa Raya Cipta | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 9.78 | (12.64) | 32.02 | |
| MAHA | PT Mandiri Herindo | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.25 | 0.03 | 7.18 | (6.74) | 45.25 |
Other Forecasting Options for Pratama Widya
For every potential investor in Pratama, whether a beginner or expert, Pratama Widya's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Pratama Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Pratama. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Pratama Widya's price trends.Pratama Widya Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Pratama Widya stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Pratama Widya could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Pratama Widya by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Pratama Widya Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Pratama Widya stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Pratama Widya shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Pratama Widya stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Pratama Widya Tbk entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Pratama Widya Risk Indicators
The analysis of Pratama Widya's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Pratama Widya's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting pratama stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.5759 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.5152 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.7684 | |||
| Variance | 0.5905 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.5764 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.2654 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.88) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Pratama Widya
The number of cover stories for Pratama Widya depends on current market conditions and Pratama Widya's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Pratama Widya is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Pratama Widya's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Pratama Widya Short Properties
Pratama Widya's future price predictability will typically decrease when Pratama Widya's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Pratama Widya Tbk often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Pratama Widya's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Pratama Widya's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 878.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 22.9 B |
Other Information on Investing in Pratama Stock
Pratama Widya financial ratios help investors to determine whether Pratama Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Pratama with respect to the benefits of owning Pratama Widya security.