Pulmatrix Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| PULM Stock | USD 2.68 0.05 1.90% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Pulmatrix on the next trading day is expected to be 2.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.49. Pulmatrix Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Pulmatrix's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Pulmatrix's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Pulmatrix fundamentals over time.
As of now the relative strength index (rsi) of Pulmatrix's share price is below 20 indicating that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Wall Street Target Price 10 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (1.00) |
Using Pulmatrix hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Pulmatrix from the perspective of Pulmatrix response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Pulmatrix on the next trading day is expected to be 2.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.49. Pulmatrix after-hype prediction price | USD 2.59 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Pulmatrix Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Pulmatrix price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Pulmatrix using various technical indicators. When you analyze Pulmatrix charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Pulmatrix Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Pulmatrix on the next trading day is expected to be 2.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.49.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Pulmatrix Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Pulmatrix's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Pulmatrix Stock Forecast Pattern
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Pulmatrix Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Pulmatrix's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Pulmatrix's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.03 and 8.74, respectively. We have considered Pulmatrix's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Pulmatrix stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Pulmatrix stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.363 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0375 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1248 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0365 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.49 |
Predictive Modules for Pulmatrix
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Pulmatrix. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Pulmatrix After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Pulmatrix at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Pulmatrix or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Pulmatrix, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Pulmatrix Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Pulmatrix's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Pulmatrix's historical news coverage. Pulmatrix's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.13 and 8.65, respectively. We have considered Pulmatrix's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Pulmatrix is risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Pulmatrix is based on 3 months time horizon.
Pulmatrix Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Pulmatrix is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Pulmatrix backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Pulmatrix, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.78 | 6.06 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 9 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
2.68 | 2.59 | 3.36 |
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Pulmatrix Hype Timeline
Pulmatrix is at this time traded for 2.68. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.09, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.03. Pulmatrix is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 2.59. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -3.36%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.78%. The volatility of related hype on Pulmatrix is about 14428.57%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.65. The book value of the company was at this time reported as 1.3. The company recorded a loss per share of 1.71. Pulmatrix last dividend was issued on the 6th of February 2019. The entity had 1:20 split on the 1st of March 2022. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Pulmatrix to cross-verify your projections.Pulmatrix Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Pulmatrix's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Pulmatrix's future price movements. Getting to know how Pulmatrix's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Pulmatrix may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DARE | Dare Bioscience | (0.08) | 8 per month | 3.77 | (0.02) | 6.55 | (6.98) | 26.52 | |
| LPTX | LPTX Old | 0.01 | 9 per month | 6.90 | 0.14 | 25.00 | (9.43) | 65.13 | |
| HOTH | Hoth Therapeutics | 0.02 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 4.81 | (6.84) | 14.85 | |
| ASBP | Aspire BioPharma | (0.40) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 19.52 | (23.85) | 63.79 | |
| PALI | Palisade Bio | 0.04 | 7 per month | 6.66 | 0.04 | 13.86 | (10.26) | 31.35 | |
| ADTX | Aditxt Inc | (0.04) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.27) | 22.54 | (28.09) | 63.67 | |
| CRIS | Curis Inc | (0.04) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 9.60 | (8.13) | 33.70 | |
| FBLG | FibroBiologics Common Stock | (0.01) | 11 per month | 8.35 | 0.01 | 13.79 | (12.82) | 47.13 | |
| LGVN | Longeveron LLC | (0.02) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 8.24 | (5.62) | 23.75 | |
| CTXR | Citius Pharmaceuticals | 0.10 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 13.83 | (10.53) | 47.90 |
Other Forecasting Options for Pulmatrix
For every potential investor in Pulmatrix, whether a beginner or expert, Pulmatrix's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Pulmatrix Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Pulmatrix. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Pulmatrix's price trends.Pulmatrix Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Pulmatrix stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Pulmatrix could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Pulmatrix by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Pulmatrix Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Pulmatrix stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Pulmatrix shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Pulmatrix stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Pulmatrix entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Pulmatrix Risk Indicators
The analysis of Pulmatrix's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Pulmatrix's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting pulmatrix stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.19 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.86 | |||
| Variance | 34.37 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Pulmatrix
The number of cover stories for Pulmatrix depends on current market conditions and Pulmatrix's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Pulmatrix is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Pulmatrix's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Pulmatrix Short Properties
Pulmatrix's future price predictability will typically decrease when Pulmatrix's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Pulmatrix often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Pulmatrix's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Pulmatrix's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 3.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 9.5 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Pulmatrix to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Pulmatrix Stock, please use our How to Invest in Pulmatrix guide.You can also try the ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world.
Is Pharmaceuticals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Pulmatrix. If investors know Pulmatrix will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Pulmatrix listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (1.71) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (1.00) | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
The market value of Pulmatrix is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Pulmatrix that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Pulmatrix's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Pulmatrix's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Pulmatrix's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Pulmatrix's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Pulmatrix's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Pulmatrix is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Pulmatrix's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.