Palm Valley Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| PVCMX Fund | USD 12.33 0.02 0.16% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Palm Valley Capital on the next trading day is expected to be 12.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.45. Palm Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Palm Valley's share price is below 20 indicating that the mutual fund is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Palm Valley hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Palm Valley Capital from the perspective of Palm Valley response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Palm Valley Capital on the next trading day is expected to be 12.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.45. Palm Valley after-hype prediction price | USD 12.33 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Palm |
Palm Valley Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Palm price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Palm using various technical indicators. When you analyze Palm charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Palm Valley Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Palm Valley Capital on the next trading day is expected to be 12.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0.001, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.45.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Palm Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Palm Valley's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Palm Valley Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Palm Valley | Palm Valley Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Palm Valley Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Palm Valley's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Palm Valley's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 12.07 and 12.59, respectively. We have considered Palm Valley's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Palm Valley mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Palm Valley mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 109.343 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0055 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0242 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.002 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.45 |
Predictive Modules for Palm Valley
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Palm Valley Capital. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Palm Valley After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Palm Valley at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Palm Valley or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Palm Valley, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Palm Valley Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Palm Valley's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Palm Valley's historical news coverage. Palm Valley's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 12.07 and 12.59, respectively. We have considered Palm Valley's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Palm Valley is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Palm Valley Capital is based on 3 months time horizon.
Palm Valley Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Palm Valley is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Palm Valley backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Palm Valley, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.04 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
12.33 | 12.33 | 0.00 |
|
Palm Valley Hype Timeline
Palm Valley Capital is at this time traded for 12.33. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.3. Palm is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.04%. %. The volatility of related hype on Palm Valley is about 3.52%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 12.63. The company last dividend was issued on the 27th of December 1970. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next expected press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Palm Valley to cross-verify your projections.Palm Valley Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Palm Valley's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Palm Valley's future price movements. Getting to know how Palm Valley's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Palm Valley may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| RYVFX | Royce Small Cap Value | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.61 | 0.11 | 2.35 | (1.27) | 12.32 | |
| SPEDX | Alger Dynamic Opportunities | (0.07) | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 1.27 | (1.25) | 3.51 | |
| SDVGX | Sit Dividend Growth | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.39 | 0.10 | 1.01 | (1.12) | 11.18 | |
| WBALX | Balanced Fund Balanced | 64.91 | 1 per month | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.72 | (0.44) | 4.27 | |
| CRAAX | Columbia Adaptive Risk | 0.01 | 1 per month | 0.39 | (0.07) | 0.68 | (0.66) | 2.14 | |
| SDVSX | Sit Dividend Growth | (1.97) | 5 per month | 0.37 | 0.10 | 1.01 | (1.06) | 11.34 | |
| BWLIX | American Beacon Bridgeway | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.43 | 0.12 | 1.55 | (1.08) | 3.03 | |
| HDPMX | Hodges Fund Retail | 0.38 | 1 per month | 1.30 | 0.1 | 2.42 | (2.32) | 12.85 | |
| SIMYX | Simt Tax Managed International | 0.04 | 1 per month | 0.23 | 0.04 | 0.86 | (0.69) | 2.08 | |
| SILVX | Summit Global Investments | 10.51 | 4 per month | 0.41 | 0.04 | 1.15 | (0.83) | 2.82 |
Other Forecasting Options for Palm Valley
For every potential investor in Palm, whether a beginner or expert, Palm Valley's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Palm Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Palm. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Palm Valley's price trends.Palm Valley Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Palm Valley mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Palm Valley could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Palm Valley by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Palm Valley Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Palm Valley mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Palm Valley shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Palm Valley mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Palm Valley Capital entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 12.33 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 12.33 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.01) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.02) |
Palm Valley Risk Indicators
The analysis of Palm Valley's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Palm Valley's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting palm mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.1933 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.2483 | |||
| Variance | 0.0617 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.0537 | |||
| Semi Variance | (0.00008) | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.25) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Palm Valley
The number of cover stories for Palm Valley depends on current market conditions and Palm Valley's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Palm Valley is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Palm Valley's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios
Story Categories
Currently Trending Categories
Other Information on Investing in Palm Mutual Fund
Palm Valley financial ratios help investors to determine whether Palm Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Palm with respect to the benefits of owning Palm Valley security.
| Financial Widgets Easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets | |
| Stock Tickers Use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites | |
| Fundamentals Comparison Compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities |