Progress-Werk Oberkirch Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing

PWO Stock  EUR 25.40  0.60  2.31%   
Progress-Werk Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Progress-Werk Oberkirch's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 26th of February 2026, the relative strength index (RSI) of Progress-Werk Oberkirch's share price is approaching 47 indicating that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Progress-Werk Oberkirch, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 47

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Progress-Werk Oberkirch's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Progress-Werk Oberkirch and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Progress-Werk Oberkirch's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Progress Werk Oberkirch AG, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Progress-Werk Oberkirch's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.128
EPS Estimate Current Year
3.1456
EPS Estimate Next Year
1.6642
Wall Street Target Price
37
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.02)
Using Progress-Werk Oberkirch hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Progress Werk Oberkirch AG from the perspective of Progress-Werk Oberkirch response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Progress Werk Oberkirch AG on the next trading day is expected to be 25.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.36 and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.54.

Progress-Werk Oberkirch after-hype prediction price

    
  EUR 25.55  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Progress-Werk Oberkirch to cross-verify your projections.

Progress-Werk Oberkirch Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Progress-Werk price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Progress-Werk using various technical indicators. When you analyze Progress-Werk charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Progress-Werk Oberkirch simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Progress Werk Oberkirch AG are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Progress Werk Oberkirch prices get older.

Progress-Werk Oberkirch Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Progress Werk Oberkirch AG on the next trading day is expected to be 25.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.36, mean absolute percentage error of 0.25, and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.54.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Progress-Werk Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Progress-Werk Oberkirch's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Progress-Werk Oberkirch Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Progress-Werk Oberkirch  Progress-Werk Oberkirch Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Progress-Werk Oberkirch Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Progress-Werk Oberkirch's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Progress-Werk Oberkirch's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 23.58 and 27.26, respectively. We have considered Progress-Werk Oberkirch's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
25.40
25.42
Expected Value
27.26
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Progress-Werk Oberkirch stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Progress-Werk Oberkirch stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.9059
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.053
MADMean absolute deviation0.359
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0131
SAESum of the absolute errors21.5395
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Progress Werk Oberkirch AG forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Progress-Werk Oberkirch observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Progress-Werk Oberkirch

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Progress Werk Oberkirch. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
23.7025.5527.40
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
21.9523.8025.65
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
8.8725.8226.67
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.400.420.43
Details

Progress-Werk Oberkirch After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Progress-Werk Oberkirch at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Progress-Werk Oberkirch or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Progress-Werk Oberkirch, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Progress-Werk Oberkirch Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Progress-Werk Oberkirch's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Progress-Werk Oberkirch's historical news coverage. Progress-Werk Oberkirch's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 23.70 and 27.40, respectively. We have considered Progress-Werk Oberkirch's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
25.40
25.55
After-hype Price
27.40
Upside
Progress-Werk Oberkirch is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Progress Werk Oberkirch is based on 3 months time horizon.

Progress-Werk Oberkirch Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Progress-Werk Oberkirch is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Progress-Werk Oberkirch backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Progress-Werk Oberkirch, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.15 
1.84
  0.15 
  0.64 
2 Events / Month
1 Events / Month
In a few days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
25.40
25.55
0.59 
184.00  
Notes

Progress-Werk Oberkirch Hype Timeline

Progress Werk Oberkirch is at this time traded for 25.40on Frankfurt Exchange of Germany. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.15, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.64. Progress-Werk is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 25.55 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 184.0%. The price rise on the next news is forecasted to be 0.59%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.15%. The volatility of related hype on Progress-Werk Oberkirch is about 43.29%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 26.04. The company reported the revenue of 555.12 M. Net Income was 12.54 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 221.18 M. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be in a few days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Progress-Werk Oberkirch to cross-verify your projections.

Progress-Werk Oberkirch Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Progress-Werk Oberkirch's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Progress-Werk Oberkirch's future price movements. Getting to know how Progress-Werk Oberkirch's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Progress-Werk Oberkirch may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
SSUNSamsung Electronics Co(70.00)4 per month 1.96  0.31  6.10 (4.11) 13.83 
SSUSamsung Electronics Co 110.00 4 per month 2.06  0.30  7.66 (4.44) 15.03 
SSUNSamsung Electronics Co 24.00 7 per month 2.15  0.29  7.14 (4.93) 14.94 
SSUSamsung Electronics Co(30.00)1 per month 1.90  0.31  7.05 (3.69) 15.50 
ASJAASTRA INTERNATIONAL 0.00 1 per month 3.39  0.01  6.25 (8.57) 25.24 
ASJAASTRA INTERNATIONAL 0.00 1 per month 0.00  0  0.00  0.00  23.05 
ASJAASTRA INTERNATIONAL 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.04) 3.13 (3.03) 6.25 
BYRABANK RAKYAT IND 0.00 1 per month 0.00 (0.07) 5.00 (5.00) 35.71 

Other Forecasting Options for Progress-Werk Oberkirch

For every potential investor in Progress-Werk, whether a beginner or expert, Progress-Werk Oberkirch's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Progress-Werk Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Progress-Werk. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Progress-Werk Oberkirch's price trends.

Progress-Werk Oberkirch Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Progress-Werk Oberkirch stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Progress-Werk Oberkirch could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Progress-Werk Oberkirch by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Progress-Werk Oberkirch Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Progress-Werk Oberkirch stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Progress-Werk Oberkirch shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Progress-Werk Oberkirch stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Progress Werk Oberkirch AG entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Progress-Werk Oberkirch Risk Indicators

The analysis of Progress-Werk Oberkirch's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Progress-Werk Oberkirch's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting progress-werk stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Progress-Werk Oberkirch

The number of cover stories for Progress-Werk Oberkirch depends on current market conditions and Progress-Werk Oberkirch's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Progress-Werk Oberkirch is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Progress-Werk Oberkirch's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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Progress-Werk Oberkirch Short Properties

Progress-Werk Oberkirch's future price predictability will typically decrease when Progress-Werk Oberkirch's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Progress Werk Oberkirch AG often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Progress-Werk Oberkirch's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Progress-Werk Oberkirch's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding3.1 M
Dividends Paid5.5 M

Other Information on Investing in Progress-Werk Stock

Progress-Werk Oberkirch financial ratios help investors to determine whether Progress-Werk Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Progress-Werk with respect to the benefits of owning Progress-Werk Oberkirch security.