Payden Absolute Mutual Fund Forecast - Polynomial Regression

PYABX Fund   9.46  0.08  0.84%   
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Payden Absolute Return on the next trading day is expected to be 9.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.72. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast Payden Absolute's fund prices and determine the direction of Payden Absolute Return's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading.
  
Payden Absolute polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Payden Absolute Return as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Payden Absolute Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 1st of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Payden Absolute Return on the next trading day is expected to be 9.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0002, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.72.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Payden Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Payden Absolute's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Payden Absolute Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Payden Absolute Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Payden Absolute's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Payden Absolute's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.37 and 9.63, respectively. We have considered Payden Absolute's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
9.46
9.50
Expected Value
9.63
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Payden Absolute mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Payden Absolute mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria109.7856
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0118
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0012
SAESum of the absolute errors0.7191
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Payden Absolute historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Payden Absolute

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Payden Absolute Return. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Payden Absolute. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Payden Absolute's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Payden Absolute's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Payden Absolute Return.

Other Forecasting Options for Payden Absolute

For every potential investor in Payden, whether a beginner or expert, Payden Absolute's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Payden Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Payden. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Payden Absolute's price trends.

Payden Absolute Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Payden Absolute mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Payden Absolute could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Payden Absolute by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Payden Absolute Return Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Payden Absolute's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Payden Absolute's current price.

Payden Absolute Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Payden Absolute mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Payden Absolute shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Payden Absolute mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Payden Absolute Return entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Payden Absolute Risk Indicators

The analysis of Payden Absolute's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Payden Absolute's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting payden mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
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