Cref Bond Fund Forward View - Polynomial Regression

QCBMIX Fund  USD 145.24  0.08  0.06%   
Cref Fund outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Cref Bond's share price is at 55 indicating that the fund is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Cref Bond, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 55

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Cref Bond's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Cref Bond Market, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Cref Bond hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Cref Bond Market from the perspective of Cref Bond response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Cref Bond Market on the next trading day is expected to be 145.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.61.

Cref Bond after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 145.32  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out fundamental analysis of Cref Bond to check your projections.

Cref Bond Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Cref price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Cref using various technical indicators. When you analyze Cref charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Cref Bond polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Cref Bond Market as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Cref Bond Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 1st of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Cref Bond Market on the next trading day is expected to be 145.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22, mean absolute percentage error of 0.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.61.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Cref Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Cref Bond's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Cref Bond Fund Forecast Pattern

Cref Bond Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Cref Bond's Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Cref Bond's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 145.22 and 145.54, respectively. We have considered Cref Bond's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
145.24
145.22
Downside
145.38
Expected Value
145.54
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Cref Bond fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Cref Bond fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.3705
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2195
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0015
SAESum of the absolute errors13.6103
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Cref Bond historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Cref Bond

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cref Bond Market. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
145.16145.32145.48
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
143.54143.70159.85
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
144.67145.11145.55
Details

Cref Bond Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

As far as predicting the price of Cref Bond at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Cref Bond or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Fund prices, such as prices of Cref Bond, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Cref Bond Fund Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Fund such as Cref Bond is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Cref Bond backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Cref Bond, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.01 
0.16
 0.00  
  0.05 
1 Events / Month
1 Events / Month
Very soon
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
145.24
145.32
0.00 
42.11  
Notes

Cref Bond Hype Timeline

Cref Bond Market is at this time traded for 145.24. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.05. Cref is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 42.11%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on Cref Bond is about 3.14%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 145.19. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be very soon.
Check out fundamental analysis of Cref Bond to check your projections.

Cref Bond Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Cref Bond's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Cref Bond's future price movements. Getting to know how Cref Bond's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Cref Bond may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Cref Bond

For every potential investor in Cref, whether a beginner or expert, Cref Bond's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Cref Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Cref. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Cref Bond's price trends.

Cref Bond Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Cref Bond fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Cref Bond could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Cref Bond by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Cref Bond Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Cref Bond fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Cref Bond shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Cref Bond fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Cref Bond Market entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Cref Bond Risk Indicators

The analysis of Cref Bond's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Cref Bond's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cref fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Cref Bond

The number of cover stories for Cref Bond depends on current market conditions and Cref Bond's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Cref Bond is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Cref Bond's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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Other Information on Investing in Cref Fund

Cref Bond financial ratios help investors to determine whether Cref Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Cref with respect to the benefits of owning Cref Bond security.
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