Dai-ichi Life Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

QHH Stock  EUR 7.15  0.10  1.38%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Dai ichi Life Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 6.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.42. Dai-ichi Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Dai-ichi Life's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 23rd of January 2026, The value of RSI of Dai-ichi Life's share price is at 53 indicating that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Dai-ichi Life, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 53

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Dai-ichi Life's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Dai-ichi Life and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Dai-ichi Life's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Dai ichi Life Holdings, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Dai-ichi Life hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Dai ichi Life Holdings from the perspective of Dai-ichi Life response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Dai ichi Life Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 6.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.42.

Dai-ichi Life after-hype prediction price

    
  EUR 7.15  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Dai-ichi Life to cross-verify your projections.

Dai-ichi Life Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Dai-ichi price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Dai-ichi using various technical indicators. When you analyze Dai-ichi charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for Dai-ichi Life is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Dai ichi Life Holdings value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Dai-ichi Life Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Dai ichi Life Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 6.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.42.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Dai-ichi Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Dai-ichi Life's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Dai-ichi Life Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Dai-ichi LifeDai-ichi Life Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Dai-ichi Life Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Dai-ichi Life's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Dai-ichi Life's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4.59 and 8.94, respectively. We have considered Dai-ichi Life's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
7.15
6.76
Expected Value
8.94
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Dai-ichi Life stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Dai-ichi Life stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.8922
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1036
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0156
SAESum of the absolute errors6.4226
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Dai ichi Life Holdings. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Dai-ichi Life. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Dai-ichi Life

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Dai ichi Life. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
4.987.159.32
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
3.685.858.02
Details

Dai-ichi Life After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Dai-ichi Life at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Dai-ichi Life or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Dai-ichi Life, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Dai-ichi Life Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Dai-ichi Life's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Dai-ichi Life's historical news coverage. Dai-ichi Life's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 4.98 and 9.32, respectively. We have considered Dai-ichi Life's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
7.15
7.15
After-hype Price
9.32
Upside
Dai-ichi Life is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Dai ichi Life is based on 3 months time horizon.

Dai-ichi Life Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Dai-ichi Life is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Dai-ichi Life backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Dai-ichi Life, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.29 
2.17
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
Within a week
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
7.15
7.15
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Dai-ichi Life Hype Timeline

Dai ichi Life is at this time traded for 7.15on Frankfurt Exchange of Germany. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Dai-ichi is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.29%. %. The volatility of related hype on Dai-ichi Life is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 7.15. About 50.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.9. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Dai ichi Life last dividend was issued on the 30th of March 2023. The entity had 1:4 split on the 14th of January 2025. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be within a week.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Dai-ichi Life to cross-verify your projections.

Dai-ichi Life Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Dai-ichi Life's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Dai-ichi Life's future price movements. Getting to know how Dai-ichi Life's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Dai-ichi Life may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Dai-ichi Life

For every potential investor in Dai-ichi, whether a beginner or expert, Dai-ichi Life's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Dai-ichi Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Dai-ichi. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Dai-ichi Life's price trends.

Dai-ichi Life Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Dai-ichi Life stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Dai-ichi Life could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Dai-ichi Life by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Dai-ichi Life Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Dai-ichi Life stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Dai-ichi Life shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Dai-ichi Life stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Dai ichi Life Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Dai-ichi Life Risk Indicators

The analysis of Dai-ichi Life's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Dai-ichi Life's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting dai-ichi stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Dai-ichi Life

The number of cover stories for Dai-ichi Life depends on current market conditions and Dai-ichi Life's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Dai-ichi Life is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Dai-ichi Life's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

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Other Information on Investing in Dai-ichi Stock

Dai-ichi Life financial ratios help investors to determine whether Dai-ichi Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Dai-ichi with respect to the benefits of owning Dai-ichi Life security.