Legg Mason Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

Legg Mason Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Legg price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Legg using various technical indicators. When you analyze Legg charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur. A naive forecasting model for Legg Mason is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Legg Mason Partners value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Legg Mason Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Legg Mason Partners on the next trading day is expected to be 17.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.55.

Legg Mason Fund Forecast Pattern

Legg Mason Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Legg Mason fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Legg Mason fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Legg Mason Partners. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Legg Mason. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Legg Mason

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Legg Mason Partners. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 15.82 16.91 18.00 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 15.97 17.06 18.15 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 16.26 17.15 18.03 Details

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Legg Mason. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Legg Mason's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Legg Mason's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Legg Mason Partners.

Legg Mason Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

Legg Mason Fund Price Outlook Analysis

Notes

Legg Mason Hype Timeline

Legg Mason Partners is at this time traded for 16.99. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.08, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.53. Legg is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 16.91. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 92.37%. The price drop on the next news is expected to be -0.47%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.07%. The volatility of related hype on Legg Mason is about 14.4%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 16.46. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next expected press release will be in a few days. Check out fundamental analysis of Legg Mason to check your projections.

Legg Mason Related Hype Analysis

Other Forecasting Options for Legg Mason

For every potential investor in Legg, whether a beginner or expert, Legg Mason's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Legg Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Legg. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Legg Mason's price trends.

Legg Mason Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

Legg Mason Market Strength Events

Legg Mason Risk Indicators

Story Coverage note for Legg Mason

Other Macroaxis Stories

Other Information on Investing in Legg Fund