Quantified Market Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

QMLAX Fund  USD 11.68  0.11  0.93%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Quantified Market Leaders on the next trading day is expected to be 11.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.83. Quantified Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Quantified Market's share price is below 20 indicating that the mutual fund is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Quantified Market's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Quantified Market Leaders, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Quantified Market hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Quantified Market Leaders from the perspective of Quantified Market response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Quantified Market Leaders on the next trading day is expected to be 11.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.83.

Quantified Market after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 11.69  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Quantified Market to cross-verify your projections.

Quantified Market Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Quantified price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Quantified using various technical indicators. When you analyze Quantified charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for Quantified Market is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Quantified Market Leaders value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Quantified Market Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Quantified Market Leaders on the next trading day is expected to be 11.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.83.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Quantified Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Quantified Market's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Quantified Market Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Quantified MarketQuantified Market Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Quantified Market Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Quantified Market's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Quantified Market's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.36 and 13.08, respectively. We have considered Quantified Market's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
11.68
11.72
Expected Value
13.08
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Quantified Market mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Quantified Market mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.5088
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1424
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0126
SAESum of the absolute errors8.8282
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Quantified Market Leaders. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Quantified Market. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Quantified Market

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Quantified Market Leaders. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
10.3311.6913.05
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
10.2011.5612.92
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
10.9211.3811.85
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Quantified Market. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Quantified Market's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Quantified Market's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Quantified Market Leaders.

Quantified Market After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Quantified Market at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Quantified Market or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Quantified Market, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Quantified Market Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Quantified Market's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Quantified Market's historical news coverage. Quantified Market's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 10.33 and 13.05, respectively. We have considered Quantified Market's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
11.68
11.69
After-hype Price
13.05
Upside
Quantified Market is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Quantified Market Leaders is based on 3 months time horizon.

Quantified Market Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Quantified Market is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Quantified Market backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Quantified Market, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.01 
1.36
  0.01 
  0.12 
4 Events / Month
1 Events / Month
In about 4 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
11.68
11.69
0.09 
186.30  
Notes

Quantified Market Hype Timeline

Quantified Market Leaders is at this time traded for 11.68. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.12. Quantified is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 11.69 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 186.3%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.09%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.01%. The volatility of related hype on Quantified Market is about 11.81%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.80. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 4 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Quantified Market to cross-verify your projections.

Quantified Market Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Quantified Market's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Quantified Market's future price movements. Getting to know how Quantified Market's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Quantified Market may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Quantified Market

For every potential investor in Quantified, whether a beginner or expert, Quantified Market's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Quantified Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Quantified. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Quantified Market's price trends.

Quantified Market Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Quantified Market mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Quantified Market could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Quantified Market by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Quantified Market Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Quantified Market mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Quantified Market shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Quantified Market mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Quantified Market Leaders entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Quantified Market Risk Indicators

The analysis of Quantified Market's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Quantified Market's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting quantified mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Quantified Market

The number of cover stories for Quantified Market depends on current market conditions and Quantified Market's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Quantified Market is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Quantified Market's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Other Information on Investing in Quantified Mutual Fund

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