Restaurant Brands Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| QSR Stock | USD 67.50 0.36 0.54% |
Restaurant Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Restaurant Brands' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Restaurant Brands' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Restaurant Brands fundamentals over time.
As of today, the relative strength indicator of Restaurant Brands' share price is approaching 47 indicating that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Restaurant Brands, making its price go up or down. Momentum 47
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.217 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.9503 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.679 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.0163 | Wall Street Target Price 78.3793 |
Using Restaurant Brands hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Restaurant Brands International from the perspective of Restaurant Brands response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Restaurant Brands using Restaurant Brands' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Restaurant using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Restaurant Brands' stock price.
Restaurant Brands Short Interest
An investor who is long Restaurant Brands may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Restaurant Brands and may potentially protect profits, hedge Restaurant Brands with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 67.3075 | Short Percent 0.0299 | Short Ratio 3.18 | Shares Short Prior Month 20.8 M | 50 Day MA 69.6764 |
Restaurant Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Restaurant Brands International on the next trading day is expected to be 67.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.64 and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.22.Restaurant Brands Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Restaurant Brands' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Restaurant. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Restaurant can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Restaurant Brands International. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Restaurant Brands' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Restaurant Brands.
Restaurant Brands Implied Volatility | 0.29 |
Restaurant Brands' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Restaurant Brands International stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Restaurant Brands' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Restaurant Brands stock will not fluctuate a lot when Restaurant Brands' options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Restaurant Brands International on the next trading day is expected to be 67.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.64 and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.22. Restaurant Brands after-hype prediction price | USD 67.53 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Restaurant | Build AI portfolio with Restaurant Stock |
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Restaurant contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Restaurant Brands International will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0181% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Restaurant Brands trading at USD 67.5, that is roughly USD 0.0122 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Restaurant Brands' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Restaurant Brands International options at the current volatility level of 0.29%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Restaurant Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Restaurant Brands' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Restaurant Brands' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Restaurant Brands stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Restaurant Brands' open interest, investors have to compare it to Restaurant Brands' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Restaurant Brands is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Restaurant. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Restaurant Brands Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Restaurant price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Restaurant using various technical indicators. When you analyze Restaurant charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Restaurant Brands Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Restaurant Brands International on the next trading day is expected to be 67.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.64, mean absolute percentage error of 0.70, and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.22.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Restaurant Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Restaurant Brands' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Restaurant Brands Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Restaurant Brands | Restaurant Brands Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Restaurant Brands Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Restaurant Brands' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Restaurant Brands' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 66.28 and 68.72, respectively. We have considered Restaurant Brands' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Restaurant Brands stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Restaurant Brands stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.7551 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0338 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.643 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0093 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 39.22 |
Predictive Modules for Restaurant Brands
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Restaurant Brands. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Restaurant Brands' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Restaurant Brands After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Restaurant Brands at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Restaurant Brands or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Restaurant Brands, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Restaurant Brands Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Restaurant Brands' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Restaurant Brands' historical news coverage. Restaurant Brands' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 66.30 and 68.76, respectively. We have considered Restaurant Brands' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Restaurant Brands is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Restaurant Brands is based on 3 months time horizon.
Restaurant Brands Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Restaurant Brands is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Restaurant Brands backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Restaurant Brands, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 1.22 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
67.50 | 67.53 | 0.04 |
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Restaurant Brands Hype Timeline
On the 28th of January Restaurant Brands is traded for 67.50. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.04. Restaurant is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 67.53 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price gain on the next news is projected to be 0.04%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.03%. The volatility of related hype on Restaurant Brands is about 94.35%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 67.54. The company reported the last year's revenue of 8.41 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 1.02 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 3.11 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Restaurant Brands to cross-verify your projections.Restaurant Brands Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Restaurant Brands' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Restaurant Brands' future price movements. Getting to know how Restaurant Brands' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Restaurant Brands may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DRI | Darden Restaurants | 6.93 | 10 per month | 1.42 | 0.01 | 3.26 | (2.51) | 8.67 | |
| YUMC | Yum China Holdings | 0.62 | 12 per month | 1.16 | 0.07 | 2.76 | (1.97) | 5.51 | |
| LI | Li Auto | (0.12) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 2.48 | (3.27) | 7.91 | |
| DPZ | Dominos Pizza Common | (2.10) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.68 | (2.15) | 6.97 | |
| ULTA | Ulta Beauty | 1.85 | 9 per month | 1.21 | 0.13 | 2.71 | (2.29) | 16.26 | |
| NVR | NVR Inc | (0.12) | 14 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.66 | (2.08) | 5.29 | |
| WSM | Williams Sonoma | (0.49) | 7 per month | 1.72 | 0.05 | 3.63 | (2.83) | 7.84 | |
| IHG | InterContinental Hotels Group | 6.93 | 9 per month | 1.09 | 0.04 | 2.69 | (2.04) | 7.94 | |
| SW | Smurfit WestRock plc | (0.45) | 24 per month | 2.63 | (0.01) | 4.83 | (3.37) | 13.00 | |
| RL | Ralph Lauren Corp | (0.12) | 27 per month | 1.34 | 0.03 | 3.09 | (2.19) | 7.40 |
Other Forecasting Options for Restaurant Brands
For every potential investor in Restaurant, whether a beginner or expert, Restaurant Brands' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Restaurant Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Restaurant. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Restaurant Brands' price trends.Restaurant Brands Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Restaurant Brands stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Restaurant Brands could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Restaurant Brands by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Restaurant Brands Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Restaurant Brands stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Restaurant Brands shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Restaurant Brands stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Restaurant Brands International entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Restaurant Brands Risk Indicators
The analysis of Restaurant Brands' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Restaurant Brands' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting restaurant stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9039 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.03 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.19 | |||
| Variance | 1.42 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.11 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.06 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.05) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Restaurant Brands
The number of cover stories for Restaurant Brands depends on current market conditions and Restaurant Brands' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Restaurant Brands is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Restaurant Brands' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Restaurant Brands Short Properties
Restaurant Brands' future price predictability will typically decrease when Restaurant Brands' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Restaurant Brands International often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Restaurant Brands' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Restaurant Brands' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 454 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.3 B |
Additional Tools for Restaurant Stock Analysis
When running Restaurant Brands' price analysis, check to measure Restaurant Brands' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Restaurant Brands is operating at the current time. Most of Restaurant Brands' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Restaurant Brands' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Restaurant Brands' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Restaurant Brands to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.