Quantified Stf Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

QSTAX Fund  USD 15.15  0.23  1.54%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Quantified Stf Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 15.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.78. Quantified Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Quantified Stf's share price is at 56 indicating that the mutual fund is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Quantified Stf, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 56

 Buy Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Quantified Stf's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Quantified Stf Fund, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Quantified Stf hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Quantified Stf Fund from the perspective of Quantified Stf response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Quantified Stf Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 15.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.78.

Quantified Stf after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 15.15  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Quantified Stf to cross-verify your projections.

Quantified Stf Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Quantified price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Quantified using various technical indicators. When you analyze Quantified charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Quantified Stf simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Quantified Stf Fund are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Quantified Stf prices get older.

Quantified Stf Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Quantified Stf Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 15.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18, mean absolute percentage error of 0.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.78.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Quantified Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Quantified Stf's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Quantified Stf Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Quantified StfQuantified Stf Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Quantified Stf Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Quantified Stf's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Quantified Stf's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.13 and 17.17, respectively. We have considered Quantified Stf's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
15.15
15.15
Expected Value
17.17
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Quantified Stf mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Quantified Stf mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.773
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0247
MADMean absolute deviation0.1797
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0125
SAESum of the absolute errors10.78
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Quantified Stf Fund forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Quantified Stf observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Quantified Stf

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Quantified Stf. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
13.1315.1517.17
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
12.6114.6316.65
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
13.3514.7716.19
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Quantified Stf. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Quantified Stf's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Quantified Stf's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Quantified Stf.

Quantified Stf After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Quantified Stf at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Quantified Stf or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Quantified Stf, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Quantified Stf Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Quantified Stf's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Quantified Stf's historical news coverage. Quantified Stf's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 13.13 and 17.17, respectively. We have considered Quantified Stf's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
15.15
15.15
After-hype Price
17.17
Upside
Quantified Stf is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Quantified Stf is based on 3 months time horizon.

Quantified Stf Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Quantified Stf is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Quantified Stf backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Quantified Stf, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.19 
2.02
  1.98 
  0.31 
5 Events / Month
1 Events / Month
In about 5 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
15.15
15.15
0.00 
19.35  
Notes

Quantified Stf Hype Timeline

Quantified Stf is at this time traded for 15.15. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 1.98, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.31. Quantified is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 19.35%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.19%. %. The volatility of related hype on Quantified Stf is about 123.36%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 15.46. The company last dividend was issued on the 24th of December 1970. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 5 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Quantified Stf to cross-verify your projections.

Quantified Stf Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Quantified Stf's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Quantified Stf's future price movements. Getting to know how Quantified Stf's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Quantified Stf may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Quantified Stf

For every potential investor in Quantified, whether a beginner or expert, Quantified Stf's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Quantified Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Quantified. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Quantified Stf's price trends.

Quantified Stf Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Quantified Stf mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Quantified Stf could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Quantified Stf by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Quantified Stf Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Quantified Stf mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Quantified Stf shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Quantified Stf mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Quantified Stf Fund entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Quantified Stf Risk Indicators

The analysis of Quantified Stf's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Quantified Stf's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting quantified mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Quantified Stf

The number of cover stories for Quantified Stf depends on current market conditions and Quantified Stf's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Quantified Stf is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Quantified Stf's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Other Information on Investing in Quantified Mutual Fund

Quantified Stf financial ratios help investors to determine whether Quantified Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Quantified with respect to the benefits of owning Quantified Stf security.
Stocks Directory
Find actively traded stocks across global markets
Analyst Advice
Analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories
Fundamentals Comparison
Compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities
Global Markets Map
Get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes