QVC Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| QVCGP Stock | 3.74 0.15 4.18% |
QVC Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although QVC's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of QVC's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of QVC fundamentals over time.
As of today, the value of RSI of QVC's share price is approaching 41 indicating that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling QVC, making its price go up or down. Momentum 41
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.06) |
Using QVC hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of QVC Group from the perspective of QVC response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of QVC Group on the next trading day is expected to be 3.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.93. QVC after-hype prediction price | USD 3.77 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of QVC to cross-verify your projections. QVC Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine QVC price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for QVC using various technical indicators. When you analyze QVC charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
QVC Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 3rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of QVC Group on the next trading day is expected to be 3.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.93.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict QVC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that QVC's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
QVC Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest QVC | QVC Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
QVC Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting QVC's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. QVC's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.04 and 8.39, respectively. We have considered QVC's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of QVC stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent QVC stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.2563 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0312 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1514 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0388 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8.93 |
Predictive Modules for QVC
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as QVC Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.QVC After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of QVC at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in QVC or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of QVC, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
QVC Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting QVC's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on QVC's historical news coverage. QVC's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.19 and 8.42, respectively. We have considered QVC's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
QVC is risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of QVC Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
QVC Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as QVC is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading QVC backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with QVC, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.52 | 4.65 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 38 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 38 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
3.74 | 3.77 | 0.80 |
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QVC Hype Timeline
QVC Group is at this time traded for 3.74. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.05. QVC is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 3.77 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price gain on the next news is projected to be 0.8%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.52%. The volatility of related hype on QVC is about 4894.74%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 3.79. The company reported the revenue of 10.04 B. Net Loss for the year was (1.25 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 3.26 B. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 38 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of QVC to cross-verify your projections.QVC Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to QVC's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict QVC's future price movements. Getting to know how QVC's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how QVC may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NHTC | Natural Health Trend | (0.30) | 7 per month | 7.24 | 0.01 | 7.79 | (13.45) | 43.82 | |
| TLYS | Tillys Inc | (0.12) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 7.30 | (5.92) | 32.45 | |
| PRTS | CarPartsCom | 0.01 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 10.00 | (7.69) | 23.61 | |
| LIVE | Live Ventures | 1.38 | 9 per month | 3.69 | 0.08 | 13.58 | (5.51) | 27.67 | |
| FRSX | Foresight Autonomous Holdings | (0.08) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.25) | 4.39 | (7.78) | 35.97 | |
| TBHC | The Brand House | 0.03 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 5.79 | (5.07) | 14.73 | |
| LITB | LightInTheBox Holding Co | 0.03 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.01) | 10.87 | (9.47) | 28.17 | |
| SYPR | Sypris Solutions | 0.24 | 8 per month | 3.88 | 0.15 | 13.27 | (7.18) | 33.25 | |
| DXLG | Destination XL Group | (0.20) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 5.61 | (6.93) | 71.37 | |
| JRSH | Jerash Holdings | (0.04) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 1.62 | (1.86) | 5.00 |
Other Forecasting Options for QVC
For every potential investor in QVC, whether a beginner or expert, QVC's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. QVC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in QVC. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying QVC's price trends.QVC Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with QVC stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of QVC could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing QVC by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
QVC Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how QVC stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading QVC shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying QVC stock market strength indicators, traders can identify QVC Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
QVC Risk Indicators
The analysis of QVC's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in QVC's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting qvc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.4 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.5 | |||
| Variance | 20.23 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for QVC
The number of cover stories for QVC depends on current market conditions and QVC's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that QVC is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about QVC's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios
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QVC Short Properties
QVC's future price predictability will typically decrease when QVC's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of QVC Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential QVC's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. QVC's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 7.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 905 M |
Additional Tools for QVC Stock Analysis
When running QVC's price analysis, check to measure QVC's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy QVC is operating at the current time. Most of QVC's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of QVC's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move QVC's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of QVC to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.