American Funds Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

American Funds Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine American price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for American using various technical indicators. When you analyze American charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur. A naive forecasting model for American Funds is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of American Funds 2055 value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

American Funds Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of American Funds 2055 on the next trading day is expected to be 28.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29, mean absolute percentage error of 0.13, and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.80.

American Funds Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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American Funds Price Prediction

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American Funds Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of American Funds mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent American Funds mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of American Funds 2055. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict American Funds. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for American Funds

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Funds 2055. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 28.38 29.40 30.42 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 28.67 29.69 30.71 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 26.77 28.69 30.62 Details

American Funds After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

American Funds Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

American Funds Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis

American Funds Hype Timeline

American Funds 2055 is at this time traded for 29.40. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.12. American is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.14%. %. The volatility of related hype on American Funds is about 114.61%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 29.28. The company last dividend was issued on the 30th of December 1970. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next anticipated press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Funds to cross-verify your projections.

American Funds Related Hype Analysis

Other Forecasting Options for American Funds

For every potential investor in American, whether a beginner or expert, American Funds' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. American Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in American. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying American Funds' price trends.

American Funds Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

American Funds Market Strength Events

American Funds Risk Indicators

Story Coverage note for American Funds

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Other Information on Investing in American Mutual Fund