Rand Capital Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| RAND Stock | USD 11.25 0.02 0.18% |
Rand Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Rand Capital stock prices and determine the direction of Rand Capital Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Rand Capital's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Rand Capital's share price is approaching 42 indicating that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Rand Capital, making its price go up or down. Momentum 42
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.46) | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.29) |
Using Rand Capital hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Rand Capital Corp from the perspective of Rand Capital response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Rand Capital Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 11.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34 and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.97. Rand Capital after-hype prediction price | USD 11.23 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Rand Capital to cross-verify your projections. Rand Capital Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Rand price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Rand using various technical indicators. When you analyze Rand charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Rand Capital Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Rand Capital Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 11.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34, mean absolute percentage error of 0.26, and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.97.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Rand Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Rand Capital's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Rand Capital Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Rand Capital | Rand Capital Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Rand Capital Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Rand Capital's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Rand Capital's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 7.47 and 14.85, respectively. We have considered Rand Capital's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Rand Capital stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Rand Capital stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0615 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3385 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0264 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 19.97 |
Predictive Modules for Rand Capital
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Rand Capital Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Rand Capital After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Rand Capital at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Rand Capital or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Rand Capital, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Rand Capital Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Rand Capital's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Rand Capital's historical news coverage. Rand Capital's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 7.56 and 14.90, respectively. We have considered Rand Capital's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Rand Capital is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Rand Capital Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Rand Capital Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Rand Capital is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Rand Capital backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Rand Capital, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.18 | 3.69 | 0.14 | 0.02 | 9 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
11.25 | 11.23 | 0.00 |
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Rand Capital Hype Timeline
Rand Capital Corp is at this time traded for 11.25. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.14, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. Rand is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.18%. %. The volatility of related hype on Rand Capital is about 4392.86%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.23. About 76.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.62. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Rand Capital Corp recorded a loss per share of 4.25. The entity last dividend was issued on the 16th of December 2025. The firm had 1:9 split on the 22nd of May 2020. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Rand Capital to cross-verify your projections.Rand Capital Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Rand Capital's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Rand Capital's future price movements. Getting to know how Rand Capital's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Rand Capital may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ICMB | Investcorp Credit Management | 0.01 | 10 per month | 1.65 | 0.01 | 2.60 | (2.11) | 8.35 | |
| MGLD | Marygold Companies | (0.07) | 7 per month | 4.77 | 0 | 9.89 | (8.26) | 45.78 | |
| TOP | Zhong Yang Financial | (0.01) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 2.73 | (2.91) | 9.67 | |
| EQS | Equus Total Return | 0.10 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 5.56 | (6.63) | 14.02 | |
| PDPA | Pearl Diver Credit | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.35 | (0.15) | 0.48 | (0.60) | 2.22 | |
| LCAP | Principal Capital Appreciation | (0.05) | 5 per month | 0.89 | 0 | 1.20 | (1.65) | 3.65 | |
| OMCC | Old Market Capital | 0.25 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 6.78 | (7.79) | 39.96 | |
| OAKU | Oak Woods Acquisition | 0.00 | 9 per month | 0.62 | (0.05) | 1.24 | (0.83) | 6.66 | |
| WINV | WinVest Acquisition Corp | 0.00 | 6 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| GROW | US Global Investors | (1.07) | 2 per month | 1.49 | 0.15 | 7.36 | (2.90) | 10.67 |
Other Forecasting Options for Rand Capital
For every potential investor in Rand, whether a beginner or expert, Rand Capital's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Rand Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Rand. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Rand Capital's price trends.Rand Capital Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Rand Capital stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Rand Capital could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Rand Capital by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Rand Capital Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Rand Capital stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Rand Capital shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Rand Capital stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Rand Capital Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Rand Capital Risk Indicators
The analysis of Rand Capital's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Rand Capital's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting rand stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.3 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.54 | |||
| Variance | 12.56 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Rand Capital
The number of cover stories for Rand Capital depends on current market conditions and Rand Capital's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Rand Capital is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Rand Capital's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Rand Capital Short Properties
Rand Capital's future price predictability will typically decrease when Rand Capital's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Rand Capital Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Rand Capital's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Rand Capital's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 834.8 K |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Rand Capital to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Analyst Advice module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.
Will Asset Management & Custody Banks sector continue expanding? Could Rand diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Rand Capital. Anticipated expansion of Rand directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Rand Capital data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.46) | Dividend Share 1.71 | Earnings Share (4.25) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.29) |
Understanding Rand Capital Corp requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Rand's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what Rand Capital's is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Rand Capital's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Rand Capital's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Rand Capital should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. In contrast, Rand Capital's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.