RAPT Therapeutics Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| RAPT Stock | USD 57.64 0.01 0.02% |
RAPT Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The RSI of RAPT Therapeutics' share price is above 70 at this time indicating that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling RAPT, making its price go up or down. Momentum 74
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.89) | EPS Estimate Current Year (2.48) | EPS Estimate Next Year (3.10) | Wall Street Target Price 58 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.85) |
Using RAPT Therapeutics hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of RAPT Therapeutics from the perspective of RAPT Therapeutics response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards RAPT Therapeutics using RAPT Therapeutics' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards RAPT using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of RAPT Therapeutics' stock price.
RAPT Therapeutics Short Interest
An investor who is long RAPT Therapeutics may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about RAPT Therapeutics and may potentially protect profits, hedge RAPT Therapeutics with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 19.2214 | Short Percent 0.0665 | Short Ratio 3.93 | Shares Short Prior Month 916.1 K | 50 Day MA 34.6054 |
RAPT Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of RAPT Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 57.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.34 and the sum of the absolute errors of 80.54.RAPT Therapeutics Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to RAPT Therapeutics' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in RAPT. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding RAPT can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around RAPT Therapeutics. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of RAPT Therapeutics' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about RAPT Therapeutics.
RAPT Therapeutics Implied Volatility | 0.51 |
RAPT Therapeutics' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of RAPT Therapeutics stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if RAPT Therapeutics' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that RAPT Therapeutics stock will not fluctuate a lot when RAPT Therapeutics' options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of RAPT Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 57.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.34 and the sum of the absolute errors of 80.54. RAPT Therapeutics after-hype prediction price | USD 60.64 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of RAPT Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current RAPT contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that RAPT Therapeutics will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0319% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With RAPT Therapeutics trading at USD 57.64, that is roughly USD 0.0184 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating RAPT Therapeutics' daily price movement you should consider acquiring RAPT Therapeutics options at the current volatility level of 0.51%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 RAPT Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast RAPT Therapeutics' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in RAPT Therapeutics' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for RAPT Therapeutics stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current RAPT Therapeutics' open interest, investors have to compare it to RAPT Therapeutics' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of RAPT Therapeutics is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in RAPT. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
RAPT Therapeutics Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine RAPT price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for RAPT using various technical indicators. When you analyze RAPT charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
RAPT Therapeutics Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of RAPT Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 57.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.34, mean absolute percentage error of 10.19, and the sum of the absolute errors of 80.54.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict RAPT Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that RAPT Therapeutics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
RAPT Therapeutics Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest RAPT Therapeutics | RAPT Therapeutics Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
RAPT Therapeutics Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting RAPT Therapeutics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. RAPT Therapeutics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 48.59 and 66.69, respectively. We have considered RAPT Therapeutics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of RAPT Therapeutics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent RAPT Therapeutics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.5944 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.4643 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.3423 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0363 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 80.54 |
Predictive Modules for RAPT Therapeutics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as RAPT Therapeutics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.RAPT Therapeutics After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of RAPT Therapeutics at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in RAPT Therapeutics or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of RAPT Therapeutics, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
RAPT Therapeutics Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting RAPT Therapeutics' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on RAPT Therapeutics' historical news coverage. RAPT Therapeutics' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 51.52 and 69.76, respectively. We have considered RAPT Therapeutics' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
RAPT Therapeutics is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of RAPT Therapeutics is based on 3 months time horizon.
RAPT Therapeutics Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as RAPT Therapeutics is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading RAPT Therapeutics backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with RAPT Therapeutics, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.36 | 9.05 | 2.96 | 0.17 | 7 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
57.64 | 60.64 | 5.22 |
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RAPT Therapeutics Hype Timeline
RAPT Therapeutics is at this time traded for 57.64. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 2.96, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.17. RAPT is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 60.64 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 5.22%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 1.36%. The volatility of related hype on RAPT Therapeutics is about 7418.03%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 57.47. RAPT Therapeutics currently holds about 207.34 M in cash with (83.3 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 6.99. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of RAPT Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections.RAPT Therapeutics Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to RAPT Therapeutics' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict RAPT Therapeutics' future price movements. Getting to know how RAPT Therapeutics' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how RAPT Therapeutics may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NMRA | Neumora Therapeutics | (0.11) | 8 per month | 4.15 | 0.05 | 13.85 | (7.30) | 42.94 | |
| BCYC | Bicycle Therapeutics | (0.13) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 6.06 | (5.88) | 17.28 | |
| OMER | Omeros | 1.40 | 8 per month | 4.35 | 0.08 | 12.62 | (7.99) | 87.69 | |
| ADCT | ADC Therapeutics SA | (0.27) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 8.49 | (7.06) | 22.84 | |
| LXRX | Lexicon Pharmaceuticals | 0.05 | 9 per month | 3.74 | 0.04 | 9.86 | (5.76) | 22.57 | |
| ALMS | Alumis Inc | 0.53 | 10 per month | 2.51 | 0.23 | 10.41 | (6.70) | 96.81 | |
| FULC | Fulcrum Therapeutics | (0.59) | 9 per month | 4.71 | 0.05 | 11.56 | (7.84) | 53.80 | |
| FDMT | 4D Molecular Therapeutics | (2.42) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 8.07 | (9.30) | 33.45 | |
| GOSS | Gossamer Bio | 0.09 | 9 per month | 4.51 | 0.06 | 9.59 | (6.57) | 31.39 | |
| KALV | Kalvista Pharmaceuticals | 0.23 | 9 per month | 2.94 | 0.12 | 8.43 | (5.03) | 25.15 |
Other Forecasting Options for RAPT Therapeutics
For every potential investor in RAPT, whether a beginner or expert, RAPT Therapeutics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. RAPT Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in RAPT. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying RAPT Therapeutics' price trends.RAPT Therapeutics Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with RAPT Therapeutics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of RAPT Therapeutics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing RAPT Therapeutics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
RAPT Therapeutics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how RAPT Therapeutics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading RAPT Therapeutics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying RAPT Therapeutics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify RAPT Therapeutics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
RAPT Therapeutics Risk Indicators
The analysis of RAPT Therapeutics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in RAPT Therapeutics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting rapt stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.07 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.63 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 8.9 | |||
| Variance | 79.12 | |||
| Downside Variance | 18.68 | |||
| Semi Variance | 13.14 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (5.05) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for RAPT Therapeutics
The number of cover stories for RAPT Therapeutics depends on current market conditions and RAPT Therapeutics' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that RAPT Therapeutics is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about RAPT Therapeutics' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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RAPT Therapeutics Short Properties
RAPT Therapeutics' future price predictability will typically decrease when RAPT Therapeutics' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of RAPT Therapeutics often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential RAPT Therapeutics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. RAPT Therapeutics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 5.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 231.1 M |
Additional Tools for RAPT Stock Analysis
When running RAPT Therapeutics' price analysis, check to measure RAPT Therapeutics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy RAPT Therapeutics is operating at the current time. Most of RAPT Therapeutics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of RAPT Therapeutics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move RAPT Therapeutics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of RAPT Therapeutics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.