Raytech Holding Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| RAY Stock | 4.59 0.06 1.29% |
Raytech Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The value of RSI of Raytech Holding's stock price is slightly above 65 indicating that the stock is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Raytech, making its price go up or down. Momentum 65
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Raytech Holding hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Raytech Holding Limited from the perspective of Raytech Holding response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Raytech Holding Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 5.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.13. Raytech Holding after-hype prediction price | USD 4.59 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Raytech Holding to cross-verify your projections. Raytech Holding Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Raytech price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Raytech using various technical indicators. When you analyze Raytech charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Raytech Holding Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Raytech Holding Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 5.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18, mean absolute percentage error of 0.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.13.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Raytech Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Raytech Holding's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Raytech Holding Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Raytech Holding | Raytech Holding Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Raytech Holding Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Raytech Holding's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Raytech Holding's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.05 and 15.89, respectively. We have considered Raytech Holding's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Raytech Holding stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Raytech Holding stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.5496 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1825 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0681 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11.13 |
Predictive Modules for Raytech Holding
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Raytech Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Raytech Holding After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Raytech Holding at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Raytech Holding or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Raytech Holding, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Raytech Holding Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Raytech Holding's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Raytech Holding's historical news coverage. Raytech Holding's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.23 and 14.93, respectively. We have considered Raytech Holding's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Raytech Holding is dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Raytech Holding is based on 3 months time horizon.
Raytech Holding Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Raytech Holding is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Raytech Holding backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Raytech Holding, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.55 | 10.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
4.59 | 4.59 | 0.00 |
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Raytech Holding Hype Timeline
On the 26th of January Raytech Holding is traded for 4.59. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Raytech is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.55%. %. The volatility of related hype on Raytech Holding is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 4.59. About 20.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.92. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Raytech Holding had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 1:16 split on the 7th of November 2025. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Raytech Holding to cross-verify your projections.Raytech Holding Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Raytech Holding's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Raytech Holding's future price movements. Getting to know how Raytech Holding's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Raytech Holding may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PHH | PHH Old | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| EDBL | Edible Garden AG | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 11.48 | (11.39) | 44.05 | |
| HCWC | Healthy Choice Wellness | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 11.11 | (8.62) | 56.39 | |
| SOWG | Sow Good Common | 0.00 | 0 per month | 7.22 | 0.01 | 24.00 | (12.37) | 55.88 | |
| PETZ | TDH Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.98 | 0.03 | 4.04 | (2.97) | 12.06 | |
| BON | Bon Natural Life | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 7.55 | (6.83) | 18.75 | |
| IPST | Heritage Distilling Holding | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.29) | 16.37 | (22.51) | 43.45 | |
| KIDZ | Classover Holdings Class | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.30) | 7.69 | (13.33) | 35.31 | |
| AGRI | AgriFORCE Growing Systems | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 13.66 | (11.07) | 35.74 | |
| WAFU | Wah Fu Education | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.45 | (0.02) | 4.32 | (4.71) | 15.74 |
Other Forecasting Options for Raytech Holding
For every potential investor in Raytech, whether a beginner or expert, Raytech Holding's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Raytech Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Raytech. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Raytech Holding's price trends.Raytech Holding Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Raytech Holding stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Raytech Holding could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Raytech Holding by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Raytech Holding Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Raytech Holding stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Raytech Holding shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Raytech Holding stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Raytech Holding Limited entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Raytech Holding Risk Indicators
The analysis of Raytech Holding's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Raytech Holding's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting raytech stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 6.84 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 8.35 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 10.34 | |||
| Variance | 107.01 | |||
| Downside Variance | 80.07 | |||
| Semi Variance | 69.8 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (7.99) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Raytech Holding
The number of cover stories for Raytech Holding depends on current market conditions and Raytech Holding's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Raytech Holding is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Raytech Holding's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Raytech Holding Short Properties
Raytech Holding's future price predictability will typically decrease when Raytech Holding's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Raytech Holding Limited often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Raytech Holding's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Raytech Holding's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 17.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 84.9 M |
Additional Tools for Raytech Stock Analysis
When running Raytech Holding's price analysis, check to measure Raytech Holding's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Raytech Holding is operating at the current time. Most of Raytech Holding's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Raytech Holding's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Raytech Holding's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Raytech Holding to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.