NatWest Group Pink Sheet Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| RBSPF Stock | USD 9.19 0.10 1.10% |
NatWest Pink Sheet outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of NatWest Group's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 30th of January 2026, The relative strength index (RSI) of NatWest Group's share price is at 58 indicating that the pink sheet is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling NatWest Group, making its price go up or down. Momentum 58
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using NatWest Group hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of NatWest Group PLC from the perspective of NatWest Group response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of NatWest Group PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 9.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.75. NatWest Group after-hype prediction price | USD 9.19 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
NatWest |
NatWest Group Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine NatWest price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for NatWest using various technical indicators. When you analyze NatWest charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
NatWest Group Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 31st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of NatWest Group PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 9.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.75.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict NatWest Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that NatWest Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
NatWest Group Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest NatWest Group | NatWest Group Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
NatWest Group Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting NatWest Group's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. NatWest Group's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 6.33 and 12.11, respectively. We have considered NatWest Group's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of NatWest Group pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent NatWest Group pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0399 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1791 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0216 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 10.7489 |
Predictive Modules for NatWest Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as NatWest Group PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.NatWest Group After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of NatWest Group at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in NatWest Group or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of NatWest Group, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
NatWest Group Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting NatWest Group's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on NatWest Group's historical news coverage. NatWest Group's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 6.30 and 12.08, respectively. We have considered NatWest Group's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
NatWest Group is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of NatWest Group PLC is based on 3 months time horizon.
NatWest Group Pink Sheet Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as NatWest Group is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading NatWest Group backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with NatWest Group, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.35 | 2.89 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
9.19 | 9.19 | 0.00 |
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NatWest Group Hype Timeline
NatWest Group PLC is at this time traded for 9.19. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. NatWest is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.35%. %. The volatility of related hype on NatWest Group is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 9.19. About 44.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.71. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. NatWest Group PLC has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.6. The entity last dividend was issued on the 30th of August 2022. The firm had 13:14 split on the 30th of August 2022. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next projected press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of NatWest Group to cross-verify your projections.NatWest Group Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to NatWest Group's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict NatWest Group's future price movements. Getting to know how NatWest Group's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how NatWest Group may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BCMXY | Bank Of Communications | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.05 | 4.86 | (2.79) | 21.04 | |
| NBNKF | Nordea Bank Abp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.06 | 0.06 | 3.59 | (2.06) | 17.31 | |
| OVCHF | Oversea Chinese Banking | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.18 | 2.31 | 0.00 | 13.99 | |
| NRDBY | Nordea Bank Abp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.09 | 0.13 | 1.94 | (2.00) | 5.56 | |
| OVCHY | Overseas Chinese Banking | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.37 | 0.31 | 2.15 | (1.19) | 7.02 | |
| CRARF | Crdit Agricole SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.01 | 0.10 | 3.36 | (2.17) | 8.79 | |
| BCLYF | Barclays PLC | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.00 | 0.14 | 3.99 | (2.70) | 11.85 | |
| SCBFY | Standard Chartered PLC | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.82 | 0.29 | 2.69 | (1.94) | 6.40 | |
| INGVF | ING Groep NV | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.14 | 3.92 | (3.12) | 12.39 | |
| BNCDY | Banca Mediolanum SPA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.49 | 0.15 | 4.44 | (3.06) | 13.85 |
Other Forecasting Options for NatWest Group
For every potential investor in NatWest, whether a beginner or expert, NatWest Group's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. NatWest Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in NatWest. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying NatWest Group's price trends.NatWest Group Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with NatWest Group pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of NatWest Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing NatWest Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
NatWest Group Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how NatWest Group pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading NatWest Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying NatWest Group pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify NatWest Group PLC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
NatWest Group Risk Indicators
The analysis of NatWest Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in NatWest Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting natwest pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.24 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.44 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.86 | |||
| Variance | 8.19 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.41 | |||
| Semi Variance | 5.97 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.44) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for NatWest Group
The number of cover stories for NatWest Group depends on current market conditions and NatWest Group's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that NatWest Group is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about NatWest Group's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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NatWest Group Short Properties
NatWest Group's future price predictability will typically decrease when NatWest Group's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of NatWest Group PLC often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential NatWest Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. NatWest Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 10.8 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 177.8 B |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in NatWest Pink Sheet
When determining whether NatWest Group PLC is a strong investment it is important to analyze NatWest Group's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact NatWest Group's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding NatWest Pink Sheet, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of NatWest Group to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the My Watchlist Analysis module to analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like.