Gasoline RBOB Commodity Forecast - Simple Regression
| RBUSD Commodity | 2.01 0.01 0.50% |
Gasoline |
Gasoline RBOB Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Gasoline RBOB on the next trading day is expected to be 2.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.82.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Gasoline Commodity prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Gasoline RBOB's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Gasoline RBOB Commodity Forecast Pattern
Gasoline RBOB Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Gasoline RBOB's Commodity value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Gasoline RBOB's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.03 and 4.00, respectively. We have considered Gasoline RBOB's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Gasoline RBOB commodity data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Gasoline RBOB commodity, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.5029 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0462 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.023 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.8157 |
Predictive Modules for Gasoline RBOB
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Gasoline RBOB. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the commodity market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the commodity market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Gasoline RBOB's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Gasoline RBOB
For every potential investor in Gasoline, whether a beginner or expert, Gasoline RBOB's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Gasoline Commodity price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Gasoline. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Gasoline RBOB's price trends.View Gasoline RBOB Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Gasoline RBOB Technical and Predictive Analytics
The commodity market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Gasoline RBOB's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Gasoline RBOB's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Gasoline RBOB Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Gasoline RBOB commodity reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Gasoline RBOB shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Gasoline RBOB commodity market strength indicators, traders can identify Gasoline RBOB entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Gasoline RBOB Risk Indicators
The analysis of Gasoline RBOB's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Gasoline RBOB's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting gasoline commodity prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.51 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.99 | |||
| Variance | 3.94 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.