Arcus Biosciences Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| RCUS Stock | USD 21.70 1.29 5.61% |
Arcus Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the RSI of Arcus Biosciences' share price is approaching 49 indicating that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Arcus Biosciences, making its price go up or down. Momentum 49
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (1.22) | EPS Estimate Current Year (3.50) | EPS Estimate Next Year (3.85) | Wall Street Target Price 33 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (1.29) |
Using Arcus Biosciences hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Arcus Biosciences from the perspective of Arcus Biosciences response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Arcus Biosciences using Arcus Biosciences' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Arcus using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Arcus Biosciences' stock price.
Arcus Biosciences Short Interest
An investor who is long Arcus Biosciences may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Arcus Biosciences and may potentially protect profits, hedge Arcus Biosciences with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 14.1449 | Short Percent 0.1025 | Short Ratio 4.84 | Shares Short Prior Month 7.8 M | 50 Day MA 22.9284 |
Arcus Relative Strength Index
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Arcus Biosciences on the next trading day is expected to be 21.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.72 and the sum of the absolute errors of 42.22.Arcus Biosciences Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Arcus Biosciences' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Arcus. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Arcus can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Arcus Biosciences. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Arcus Biosciences' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Arcus Biosciences.
Arcus Biosciences Implied Volatility | 0.99 |
Arcus Biosciences' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Arcus Biosciences stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Arcus Biosciences' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Arcus Biosciences stock will not fluctuate a lot when Arcus Biosciences' options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Arcus Biosciences on the next trading day is expected to be 21.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.72 and the sum of the absolute errors of 42.22. Arcus Biosciences after-hype prediction price | USD 21.33 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Arcus Biosciences to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Arcus contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Arcus Biosciences will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0619% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Arcus Biosciences trading at USD 21.7, that is roughly USD 0.0134 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Arcus Biosciences' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Arcus Biosciences options at the current volatility level of 0.99%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Arcus Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Arcus Biosciences' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Arcus Biosciences' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Arcus Biosciences stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Arcus Biosciences' open interest, investors have to compare it to Arcus Biosciences' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Arcus Biosciences is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Arcus. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Arcus Biosciences Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Arcus price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Arcus using various technical indicators. When you analyze Arcus charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Arcus Biosciences Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Arcus Biosciences on the next trading day is expected to be 21.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.72, mean absolute percentage error of 1.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 42.22.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Arcus Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Arcus Biosciences' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Arcus Biosciences Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Arcus Biosciences | Arcus Biosciences Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Arcus Biosciences Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Arcus Biosciences' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Arcus Biosciences' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 17.78 and 25.62, respectively. We have considered Arcus Biosciences' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Arcus Biosciences stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Arcus Biosciences stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.4691 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0397 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7156 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0317 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 42.22 |
Predictive Modules for Arcus Biosciences
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Arcus Biosciences. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Arcus Biosciences' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Arcus Biosciences After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Arcus Biosciences at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Arcus Biosciences or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Arcus Biosciences, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Arcus Biosciences Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Arcus Biosciences' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Arcus Biosciences' historical news coverage. Arcus Biosciences' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 17.41 and 25.25, respectively. We have considered Arcus Biosciences' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Arcus Biosciences is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Arcus Biosciences is based on 3 months time horizon.
Arcus Biosciences Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Arcus Biosciences is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Arcus Biosciences backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Arcus Biosciences, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.24 | 3.92 | 0.37 | 0.07 | 9 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
21.70 | 21.33 | 1.71 |
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Arcus Biosciences Hype Timeline
Arcus Biosciences is at this time traded for 21.70. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.37, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.07. Arcus is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 21.33. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -1.71%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.24%. The volatility of related hype on Arcus Biosciences is about 1430.66%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 21.77. About 30.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company recorded a loss per share of 3.42. Arcus Biosciences had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Arcus Biosciences to cross-verify your projections.Arcus Biosciences Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Arcus Biosciences' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Arcus Biosciences' future price movements. Getting to know how Arcus Biosciences' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Arcus Biosciences may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| IBRX | Immunitybio | 0.65 | 9 per month | 4.20 | 0.21 | 11.16 | (7.49) | 51.87 | |
| DNLI | Denali Therapeutics | 0.09 | 12 per month | 2.98 | 0.11 | 6.50 | (4.21) | 23.32 | |
| GLPG | Galapagos NV ADR | 0.82 | 3 per month | 1.31 | 0.02 | 2.62 | (2.52) | 7.08 | |
| COGT | Cogent Biosciences | 1.05 | 10 per month | 2.14 | 0.14 | 5.94 | (4.44) | 126.24 | |
| ETNB | 89bio Inc | (0.06) | 31 per month | 1.83 | 0.09 | 3.02 | (4.66) | 86.02 | |
| AGIO | Agios Pharm | 1.07 | 14 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 5.99 | (3.94) | 56.88 | |
| VRDN | Viridian Therapeutics | 0.33 | 9 per month | 1.08 | 0.23 | 5.57 | (2.19) | 15.86 | |
| BEAM | Beam Therapeutics | (0.52) | 11 per month | 3.53 | 0.02 | 8.12 | (6.28) | 31.78 | |
| OCUL | Ocular Therapeutix | (0.29) | 13 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 6.04 | (5.06) | 35.70 | |
| LQDA | Liquidia Technologies | (0.40) | 12 per month | 3.01 | 0.25 | 8.00 | (4.45) | 19.63 |
Other Forecasting Options for Arcus Biosciences
For every potential investor in Arcus, whether a beginner or expert, Arcus Biosciences' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Arcus Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Arcus. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Arcus Biosciences' price trends.Arcus Biosciences Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Arcus Biosciences stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Arcus Biosciences could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Arcus Biosciences by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Arcus Biosciences Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Arcus Biosciences stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Arcus Biosciences shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Arcus Biosciences stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Arcus Biosciences entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.94 | |||
| Day Median Price | 21.7 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 21.7 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.64) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.29) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 49.05 |
Arcus Biosciences Risk Indicators
The analysis of Arcus Biosciences' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Arcus Biosciences' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting arcus stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.77 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.11 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.99 | |||
| Variance | 15.92 | |||
| Downside Variance | 20.68 | |||
| Semi Variance | 16.87 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.92) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Arcus Biosciences
The number of cover stories for Arcus Biosciences depends on current market conditions and Arcus Biosciences' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Arcus Biosciences is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Arcus Biosciences' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Arcus Biosciences Short Properties
Arcus Biosciences' future price predictability will typically decrease when Arcus Biosciences' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Arcus Biosciences often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Arcus Biosciences' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Arcus Biosciences' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 90.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 978 M |
Additional Tools for Arcus Stock Analysis
When running Arcus Biosciences' price analysis, check to measure Arcus Biosciences' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Arcus Biosciences is operating at the current time. Most of Arcus Biosciences' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Arcus Biosciences' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Arcus Biosciences' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Arcus Biosciences to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.