ReFuels NV Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

REFL Stock   15.10  0.10  0.67%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of ReFuels NV on the next trading day is expected to be 15.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.49. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast ReFuels NV's stock prices and determine the direction of ReFuels NV's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of ReFuels NV's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Check out Your Equity Center to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in employment. The value of RSI of ReFuels NV's stock price is about 61 indicating that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of now. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling ReFuels, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 61

 Buy Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of ReFuels NV's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of ReFuels NV and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from ReFuels NV's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with ReFuels NV, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using ReFuels NV hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of ReFuels NV from the perspective of ReFuels NV response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of ReFuels NV on the next trading day is expected to be 15.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.49.

ReFuels NV after-hype prediction price

    
  NOK 15.1  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Your Equity Center to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in employment.

ReFuels NV Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine ReFuels price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for ReFuels using various technical indicators. When you analyze ReFuels charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for ReFuels NV is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of ReFuels NV value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

ReFuels NV Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 10th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of ReFuels NV on the next trading day is expected to be 15.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27, mean absolute percentage error of 0.15, and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.49.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ReFuels Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ReFuels NV's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

ReFuels NV Stock Forecast Pattern

ReFuels NV Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting ReFuels NV's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ReFuels NV's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11.64 and 18.70, respectively. We have considered ReFuels NV's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
15.10
15.17
Expected Value
18.70
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ReFuels NV stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ReFuels NV stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.0358
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2659
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0203
SAESum of the absolute errors16.4853
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of ReFuels NV. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict ReFuels NV. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for ReFuels NV

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ReFuels NV. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Other Forecasting Options for ReFuels NV

For every potential investor in ReFuels, whether a beginner or expert, ReFuels NV's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ReFuels Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ReFuels. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ReFuels NV's price trends.

ReFuels NV Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ReFuels NV stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ReFuels NV could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ReFuels NV by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

ReFuels NV Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of ReFuels NV's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of ReFuels NV's current price.

ReFuels NV Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ReFuels NV stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ReFuels NV shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ReFuels NV stock market strength indicators, traders can identify ReFuels NV entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

ReFuels NV Risk Indicators

The analysis of ReFuels NV's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ReFuels NV's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting refuels stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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