Repsol SA Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| REP Stock | ARS 629.00 0.50 0.08% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Repsol SA on the next trading day is expected to be 629.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.00. Repsol Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Repsol SA stock prices and determine the direction of Repsol SA's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Repsol SA's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time, The value of RSI of Repsol SA's share price is at 56 indicating that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Repsol SA, making its price go up or down. Momentum 56
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Repsol SA hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Repsol SA from the perspective of Repsol SA response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Repsol SA on the next trading day is expected to be 629.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.00. Repsol SA after-hype prediction price | ARS 629.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Repsol |
Repsol SA Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Repsol price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Repsol using various technical indicators. When you analyze Repsol charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Repsol SA Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Repsol SA on the next trading day is expected to be 629.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.00.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Repsol Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Repsol SA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Repsol SA Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Repsol SA | Repsol SA Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Repsol SA Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Repsol SA's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Repsol SA's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 628.99 and 629.01, respectively. We have considered Repsol SA's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Repsol SA stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Repsol SA stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0169 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.0 |
Predictive Modules for Repsol SA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Repsol SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Repsol SA After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Repsol SA at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Repsol SA or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Repsol SA, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Repsol SA Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Repsol SA's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Repsol SA's historical news coverage. Repsol SA's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 628.99 and 629.01, respectively. We have considered Repsol SA's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Repsol SA is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Repsol SA is based on 3 months time horizon.
Repsol SA Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Repsol SA is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Repsol SA backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Repsol SA, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
629.00 | 629.00 | 0.00 |
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Repsol SA Hype Timeline
Repsol SA is at this time traded for 629.00on Buenos Aires Exchange of Argentina. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Repsol is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.0%. %. The volatility of related hype on Repsol SA is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 629.00. The company has Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 310.62. Repsol SA last dividend was issued on the 3rd of July 1970. The entity had 2:1 split on the 18th of December 2017. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Repsol SA to cross-verify your projections.Repsol SA Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Repsol SA's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Repsol SA's future price movements. Getting to know how Repsol SA's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Repsol SA may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AGRO | Agrometal SAI | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.11 | 0.16 | 7.46 | (4.26) | 20.74 | |
| HMY | Harmony Gold Mining | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.50 | 0.09 | 6.22 | (5.07) | 21.26 | |
| TGSU2 | Transportadora de Gas | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.32 | 0.1 | 4.21 | (3.00) | 30.63 | |
| TECO2 | Telecom Argentina | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.74 | 0.14 | 6.71 | (3.83) | 33.49 | |
| VZ | Verizon Communications | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.03 | (2.69) | 6.49 |
Other Forecasting Options for Repsol SA
For every potential investor in Repsol, whether a beginner or expert, Repsol SA's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Repsol Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Repsol. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Repsol SA's price trends.Repsol SA Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Repsol SA stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Repsol SA could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Repsol SA by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Repsol SA Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Repsol SA stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Repsol SA shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Repsol SA stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Repsol SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 629.0 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 629.0 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.25 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.5 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 56.35 |
Repsol SA Risk Indicators
The analysis of Repsol SA's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Repsol SA's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting repsol stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.0025 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.0142 | |||
| Variance | 2.0E-4 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Repsol SA
The number of cover stories for Repsol SA depends on current market conditions and Repsol SA's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Repsol SA is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Repsol SA's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Repsol SA Short Properties
Repsol SA's future price predictability will typically decrease when Repsol SA's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Repsol SA often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Repsol SA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Repsol SA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.5 B | |
| Dividends Paid | -625 M | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 4 B |
Other Information on Investing in Repsol Stock
Repsol SA financial ratios help investors to determine whether Repsol Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Repsol with respect to the benefits of owning Repsol SA security.