Replimune Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| REPL Stock | USD 3.44 0.57 19.86% |
Replimune Group's Double Exponential Smoothing forecast is generated from the selected price series and evaluated against observed values. Forecast accuracy depends on how stable the recent price trend has been — trending markets suit some models better than others. The Double Exponential Smoothing model projects Replimune at 3.46 for the next trading day, above the most recent closing price. All values shown are model-generated projections and should be evaluated alongside other analytical inputs.
Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 8th of May
Over a 90-day horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing model forecasts Replimune at 3.46 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.09 , and sum of absolute errors of 22.28 .This indicates moderate forecast accuracy — the model captures the general trend but not all short-term variation in Replimune's price. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Replimune | Replimune Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This forecast for Replimune frames the expected trading range using downside and upside bounds rather than a single point target. The current forecast range spans downside near 0.03 and upside near 15.81. The wide range indicates elevated uncertainty in short-term projections.
Model Predictive Factors
The table below summarizes the Double Exponential Smoothing model's error metrics for Replimune stock. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0927 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3713 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0944 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 22.28 |
Other Forecasting Options for Replimune
Bollinger Bands applied to Replimune Stock price data measure how far Replimune has deviated from its recent average relative to its own volatility. This distinction drives the choice of forecasting model applied to Replimune's price data.Replimune Related Equities
These firms work in a similar space as Replimune within the Health Care space and serve as useful points for comparison. Revenue and margin checks across this group help investors set expectations for Replimune's results.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Replimune Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Replimune quantify how the stock responds to shifts in volume and sentiment. These indicators capture shifts in momentum that may precede significant price moves in Replimune.
Replimune Risk Indicators
Analyzing Replimune's risk indicators separates symmetric price swings from asymmetric downside exposure. Understanding and quantifying the risks present in Replimune helps place recent price behavior in context.
| Mean Deviation | 7.34 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 12.35 | |||
| Variance | 152.49 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Replimune Short Properties
Short-interest data for Replimune reveals whether bearish conviction in the market is gaining traction. Comparing short sentiment with trend behavior, volume, and the broader market narrative provides a more grounded view.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 80.56 million | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 483.8 million |