Growth Fund Mutual Fund Forward View

RGEBX Fund

USD 81.18 0.56 0.69%

The Naive Prediction output for Growth Fund Of is derived from daily price data across the evaluation window. The error pattern reveals whether the model tracked prices consistently or diverged during volatile sessions. Parameters are re-estimated as new trading sessions are recorded, keeping the forecast current. The Naive Prediction model projects Growth Fund at 79.29 for the next trading day, below the most recent closing price. Growth Fund's Naive Prediction forecast is intended for short-term analytical reference.

A naive forecasting model for Growth Fund is a special case of the moving average where the smoothing period is one. The forecast for Growth Fund Of on a given trading day is simply the observed closing price of the previous period. Because it uses only a single lag, this model is limited to one-period-ahead forecasts.

Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 9th of May

Over a 90-day horizon, the Naive Prediction model forecasts Growth Fund at 79.29 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 0.91 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.01 , and sum of absolute errors of 55.57 .

This represents a very tight forecast — the model closely tracks Growth Fund's recent price behavior. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.

Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Growth Fund

Growth Fund Price Prediction

Research Analysis

Forecasted Value

Growth Fund's next-session forecast estimates practical downside and upside boundaries based on the model's historical fit. The model places downside around 78.11 and upside around 80.47 for the next session. The narrow range indicates limited short-term dispersion.

Market Value

81.18

78.11

Downside

79.29

Expected Value

80.47

Upside

Target Odds

Above Odds

Below Odds

Model Predictive Factors

The table below summarizes the Naive Prediction model's error metrics for Growth Fund mutual fund. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.

AIC	Akaike Information Criteria	118.3913
Bias	Arithmetic mean of the errors	None
MAD	Mean absolute deviation	0.9109
MAPE	Mean absolute percentage error	0.0122
SAE	Sum of the absolute errors	55.5676

The naive model produces a tight forecast range but offers no smoothing of noise or trend detection. It serves primarily as a baseline benchmark — if a more complex model cannot outperform the naive forecast, it may indicate that Growth Fund price movements are largely random over the selected horizon.

Other Forecasting Options for Growth Fund

Relative Strength Index values for Growth Fund measure the speed and magnitude of recent price changes. Recognizing these clusters in Growth Fund's returns informs position size and stop-loss calibration. Candlestick pattern analysis of Growth Fund Mutual Fund daily data reveals short-term reversal or continuation signals.

Growth Fund Comparable Funds

The instruments listed below are comparable funds for Growth Fund and provide a practical reference set. Peer review is strongest when it focuses on NAV trend, discount or premium to NAV, yield, and fee burden. Differences across peer funds often reflect mandate, region, income policy, or leverage choices.

Mid Cap Profund Mid Cap William Blair Small Lsv Small Cap Small Cap Value Omni Small Cap Value Boston Partners Small Small Cap Value Fund Mid Cap Growth Profund American Airlines Group Alcoa Corp Apple Inc Best Buy Co Citigroup SentinelOne CVS Health Corp

Risk & Return

Correlation

Growth Fund Market Strength Events

Accumulation/Distribution and Balance of Power for Growth Fund reveal whether buying or selling pressure dominates recent sessions. Balance of Power trending positive indicates that buyers are consistently closing Growth Fund near session highs. These signals help explain whether price direction and session structure are moving together for Growth Fund.

	Rate Of Daily Change	1.01
	Day Median Price	81.18
	Day Typical Price	81.18
	Price Action Indicator	0.28
	Period Momentum Indicator	0.56
	Relative Strength Index	65.14

Growth Fund Risk Indicators

Risk indicator analysis for Growth Fund quantifies how much price variability the mutual fund has exhibited over the measurement window. Downside variance exceeding total variance indicates that negative moves in Growth Fund have been larger or more frequent than positive ones. Mean deviation provides a more intuitive measure of typical price fluctuation than variance because it stays in the same units as Growth Fund's price.

	Mean Deviation	0.9431
	Semi Deviation	1.04
	Standard Deviation	1.22
	Variance	1.49
	Downside Variance	1.33
	Semi Variance	1.07
	Expected Short fall	-1.04

Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

	Naive Prediction
	Simple Exponential Smoothing
	Double Exponential Smoothing
	Triple Exponential Smoothing
	Simple Regression
	Polynomial Regression
	Simple Moving Average
	4 Period Moving Average
	8 Period Moving Average
	20 Period Moving Average